October 8, 2007
Fred is Fading (Dick Morris)
Scott Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll catalogues a candidacy in trouble as it chronicles Fred Thompson’s descent over the past two weeks in the polls as his candidacy increasingly comes to resemble the old U.S. Vanguard rocket, which would go three feet up in the air before crashing back down on the launching pad (circa 1958).
Rasmussen, who uses a tight screen to identify core Republican primary voters, has always had Thompson higher than any of the other polling organizations. These other firms, like Gallup, use a looser screen, which may let in more people who are not definitely going to vote in GOP primaries. (Neither one is clearly right or wrong, but the one likely understates turnout while the other probably overstates it. Take your pick.)
Rasmussen has Thompson losing a fifth of his vote share between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5, dropping from 27 percent to 21 in the national GOP head-to-head contest:
Rasmussen shows Thompson drop
Date Thompson Vote Share
Sept. 25 27%
Sept. 26 26%
Sept. 27 26%
Sept. 28 24%
Sept. 29 26%
Sept. 30 25%
Oct. 1 25%
Oct. 2 24%
Oct. 3 22%
Oct. 4 22%
Oct. 5 21%
All his missteps and his laid-back style of campaigning is taking a toll on the early enthusiasm with which his candidacy was received.
Permalink TrackBack EMail This Post
Share this post
What's This 21 Comments
»
The Hill welcomes comment from anyone and will almost always post it whether it is favorable or critical, as long as it is substantive and advances debate.
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
This is no surprise, afterall Fred is a lobbyist first. The guy has already revealed his ignorance, thus the slide down the poll.
Thompson is not sincere about his efforts and has a lot of non-evangelical baggage. There-in lies a large portion of the 'problem'.
The GOP base is "socially conservative" (aka, evangelicals, neocons, or nutballs) and subsequently will not invest in Fred The Lobbyist. They (neocons) got burned with Dumbya (Rove) and will not invest as easily this time.
The GOP would be well advised to cut the nutty evangelicals and restructure the base. But as you can tell by the candidates pandering, the GOP is gonna try again for the evangelical nut-base, and subsequently run off a lot of good people.
I see an implosion looming
Comment by Chris in NM — October 8, 2007 @ 1:45 pm
Dick, you think that politics is about spin. Sometimes it is, but not always. Fred is running a campaign with almost no spin. You believe it can't work, and some voters believe the same thing. Just as you question the "fire in the belly" thing, so do they. I know what they are thinking because I read their comments. They don't see a fire-breezing Hillary-consuming dragon, and they back off. Just like you, they will be proven wrong. You also have just a bit of spin here in that Rudy is fading as well, and Romney is gaining. Since there is no way in hell that Romney will be the nominee, and there is no way in hell that in the presence of Fred the base will pick Rudy, the voters will eventually come to realize that speaking the truth plainly is better than a wide variety of tactics. I actually don't mind Rudy winning all that much other than I'm worried he is not the one who is guaranteed to beat Hillary in spite of a lot of conventional wisdom. He is also not nearly as strategic as Fred, and the big war requires a deep strategy. Fred will win both the nomination and the Presidency, and you will be proven wrong.
Comment by Igor R. — October 8, 2007 @ 1:52 pm
Oh, Chris, Chris, do you realize that Fred was subjected to an incredible "he is lazy, boring, and misinformed" attack from a wide variety of major news source s last week? Do you realize that people that went to the evens that describe Fred as totally failing saw an intelligent, thoughtful candidate who is not compulsive about the Presidency and wasn't groomed for two decade to get there? Just watch and learn how the truth triumphs over spin if done correctly.
Comment by Igor R. — October 8, 2007 @ 1:57 pm
Fred Thompson Will Probably Be GOP Nominee…
Why? The eternally wrong Dick Morris says he's fading. The truth is almost the opposite of what Dick Morris says, yet the guy will always be employed because Fox News can never have enough Clinton-haters…….
Trackback by Oliver Willis — October 8, 2007 @ 3:29 pm
Fred Thompson is growing on me every day and I am indicative of the typical GOP voter. He was introduced to unrealistic expectations and was bound to fall short. That being said we need even tempered adults with experience and the ability to think in high level positions. It will not be Obama, Edwards, or Hillary. It will be Fred or Rudy. Rudy needs to revisit and clarify his appointment of judges position and Fred just needs to keep being seen as a strategic thinker willing to reduce government, map out a military strategy, and remain honest to his convictions. The thing I like most about Fred is his lack of desperation for power…
Comment by Rich — October 8, 2007 @ 4:00 pm
The last thing we want is another lazy-assed George Bush in the WH. We've already paid the price for ignorance, we don't need to "Thompson" down the public anymore.
If we do, how will we ever defeat the Soviet Union?
Comment by TimPundit — October 8, 2007 @ 4:26 pm
Tim, the same way we'll break away from the British: new tactics. But hey, while you're so happy with the "Thompson is an idiot" thread, remember this, and remember it well: Dick Morris, who I love to watch, because anyone with this much hatred for Hillary is a friend of mine, will be proven totally incompetent. Remember that you're observing an incredible morality tale, a tale of truth triumphing over both evil (Hillary) and spin (Dick). And Rudy, he is a great guy, but unfortunately anyone who can't explain at least three of his positions (on the right to bear arms, illegal immigration, and abortion) without resorting to verbal juggling is stuck in the mud. It's just the unfairness of life: to be elected the mayor of New York City you have to have stands on issues that make you unfit for the Presidency of the United States. Ain't life a Hillary…
Comment by Igor R. — October 8, 2007 @ 6:19 pm
Hi Igor,
I think most people understand that your areas of responsibility grow when you move from Mayor to President and with that your positions change.
It's sort of like how you may think before you have children, and then change positions after you have children.
As Rudy Giuliani's experiences grew, so did he. Good things happened, bad things happened he tried to learn from all of it.
Expectations more than that will not be of this earth.
It is refreshing to finally have a President who walks where you and I walk, and understands our concerns for safety, the protection of this country, the need for better education, and is opposed to government assuming health decisions for women, though personally opposed to abortion.
All of that is pretty clear.
Rudy Giuliani in 2008!
P.S. Have you heard that Sandy Berger (accused of a felony for stealing security records, stuffing them in his pants and sox) is "behind the scenes" in the Hillary Clinton Campaign?
Comment by Cheryl O — October 8, 2007 @ 10:55 pm
Dick Morris is an entertainer who takes polls and has his own agenda, though he keeps it close to his vest. The chief reason I like Thompson is precisely because he isn't a driven man who may be a borderline nutjob [Rudy], a troubled dude with heretical thoughts on immigration [McCain] or a spit-and-polish Mitt who could have stepped out of that Mad Men advertising agency from 1960 on the AMC.
Fred is hardly a diehard lobbyist. I worked for a few days for Howard Baker in his month-long campaign back in 1980 [remember that short flirtation by HB?] & vaguely remember seeing or meeting Fred at the HQ on/near N. Capitol St. Fred is a reluctant warrior and probably will not win the nomination, but I hope he does, although he probably in that case won't win the election.
Clinton Inc. has too much firepower and I do believe Hillarious will even keep Sandy Bergler on as an advisor, just to cock her snoot at the decent Americans who are not scofflaws.
Comment by daveinboca — October 9, 2007 @ 12:53 am
This is a long post so bear with me.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson doesn’t need to have a good debate performance Tuesday night. He needs to KNOCK THE COVER OFF THE BALL. He needs to beat the rest of the field BY TEN TOUCHDOWNS.
The Thompson campaign is wisely playing the expectations game.
"We think that we'll hold our own, but obviously every other candidate on the stage has been going to these debates all year long. They've already gone through their preseason. This is our first scrimmage," said Todd Harris, a Thompson spokesman. "The most important thing for us is for Fred's message and answers to connect with Republican voters and that has been our focus."
With all due respect, this is not the preseason and it is not a scrimmage. If you want to stay with sports metaphors, Thompson was a contract holdout and missed the entire training camp and pre-season. But this is the pros and it is time to put up or shut up or perhaps more appropriately, win or go home.
Thompson was going to announce in July, then August and then in time for the New Hampshire debate. He missed all those self-imposed deadlines because of campaign staff shake-ups and fundraising that while respectable, fell far short of expectations. His stump speeches and other media appearances have fallen short of expectations as well. This is Thompson’s first exposure on the national stage that isn’t scripted by writers for Law and Order.
Based on my reading of background questions from various polls, I get the sense that, to use an old political phrase, his support is a mile wide but only an inch deep. Without a great debate performance, I believe a lot of that pond is going to dry up.
”All his missteps and his laid-back style of campaigning is taking a toll on the early enthusiasm with which his candidacy was received.”
According to Dick Morris writing for The Hill that Fred is Fading, Thompson’s numbers among likely Republican voters are falling. Not precipitously but falling none the less and that is not a good sign. It is especially not a good sign when it coincides with the calendar which indicated that more and more voters are actually focusing on the race.
Thompson also needs a great debate performance to mollify hard-line conservatives over his support of McCain-Feingold. Given the vitriol aimed at Senator McCain on pro Fred blogs and other political sites over McCain-Feingold it will be interesting to see how Thompson’s full throated support will play out with his supporters. As John Gizzi writes in a recent article in Human Events…
Fred Thompson finally made clear his position on the statist campaign finance restrictions embodied in the McCain-Feingold bill. And conservatives are clearly not going to be pleased.
When the former star of TV's "Law and Order" series and newly-minted presidential candidate spoke to reporters on the porch of the Grand Hotel here, I asked Thompson whether he was proud of his role in enacting the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform legislation in '01.
"Yes," replied the former Tennessee senator without hesitation. "You will recall that the central part of the legislation was getting rid of soft money [from the political process]."
Fred Thompson either needs to win the Michigan Debate and win it big or he needs to hope that there are no rotund operatic sopranos warming up their vocal chords
Comment by Brad Marston — October 9, 2007 @ 4:30 am
Cheryl, Rudy is fine, especially with me since I don't really care about abortions, and cleaning up New York any way he could was great. I AM concerned that he won't play in the South. Note that in the last 40 years every President was either from the South (if you include Texas) or California. I AM concerned that he seems volatile. And while I like to separate the personal from the public, I truly believe in treating women with respect, and I don't think he has done that in his life. But listen, if I'm wrong and he wins I'll obviously be a million times happier than if the evil one gets there, and I know he won't give Iran and Al Qaeda a free pass.
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2007 @ 2:20 pm
Brad, I love it: if he isn't larger than life and perfect, he is out. Somehow I think you want another candidate to win.
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2007 @ 2:21 pm
Cheryl, of course I heard about the Burglar's latest stint. But what do you expect: these are dirty, evil people he is "advising" and he knows a lot (like why exactly he was taking such risks), so whatever Sandy wants Sandy gets.
Meanwhile, the investigation into Hsu's accounts is slowly continuing. All in the goodness of time.
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2007 @ 2:25 pm
Why isn't the press speaking about Sandy Berger on the Hillary Campaign? Is it another block by the Clinton Campaign, like the GQ blockade?
Comment by Cheryl O — October 9, 2007 @ 7:18 pm
Cheryl, the Clinton Campaign doesn't need to do anything, "the press" is basically their friends in the positions of influence. The Clintonistas periodically "enforce" the rules with the wayward publications as you mentioned, but the overall behavior is that of committed Stalinists supporting committed Stalinists. How is that different from distorting the news from Iraq, attacking economic prosperity, shilling for illegal immigration and everything else that leftist fascists do?
This is a year-long article but it's a good read about how the radicals took over:
http://americandigest.org/mt-archives/005097.php
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2007 @ 9:43 pm
"year old" not "year-long", that would be a bit too much.
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2007 @ 9:47 pm
Hi Igor, excellent article and thanks for sharing.
Since the left has galvanized over Bush hate, so shall the Rpublican Party over "everything but the left. The pendulum has a history of always moving back to the center.
The Republican Party can hold their head high on the slate of candidates. The Democrats (including Hillary Clinton) look like a bunch of amateurs by comparison with Hillary's irresponsible promises of giveaways, and pulling back after her campaign (and Sandy Berger) correct her reckless abandon. Childish.
Then there is Barack Obama's excercise in double speak complete flagectomy. Childish.
Some day, we may look back and have a good laugh.
Comment by Cheryl O — October 10, 2007 @ 1:03 pm
Cheryl, I think so. Today's Lanny Davis' peace on Hillary may be the biggest joke of all.
Comment by Igor R. — October 10, 2007 @ 2:33 pm
come on. let the people decide for themselves with ALL the facts about your tax 'situation' so they can accurately 'weigh' your admonition re: Hillary and the stock market crash.
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:06 pm
one more, then i REALLY gotta go.
re; your ‘cleansing’ routine on your ‘Hillary will crash the stock market’ post.
‘dick’, I stand corrected. it only takes 5m for you to cleanse any of the inconvenient truths re: your ONGOING TAX EVASION in CT (1443h > 1448h), VERY efficient, Goebbels would have been proud of your message control.
Nichts, hier zu sehen…
Entlang bewegen, JETZT!!
One more time, 3X is the charm’ is it not?
Folks, check Connecticut’s Dept of Revenue Services for the ‘dick’s’ ranking on their:
‘100 of the Top Delinquent Income Taxpayer Accounts’
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:04 pm
#
‘dick’
are we having fun yet?
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:05 pm
#
come on. let the people decide for themselves with ALL the facts about your tax ’situation’ so they can accurately ‘weigh’ your admonition re: Hillary and the stock market crash.
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:06 pm
#
truth ‘hurts’, don’t she?
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:07 pm
#
you ‘dick’.
pay your taxes, you’re making good money form fox noise.
be a good citizen, ‘dick’.
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:08 pm
#
MORRIS RICHARD S
8258 SANDPIPERGLEN DR Individual Income
$439,688.99
It’s (CT) public record, folks:
http://www.ct.gov/DRS/cwp/view.asp?a=1453&q=296114&drsNav=%7C
100 of the Top Delinquent Income Taxpayer Accounts Deficient in Excess of 90 Days as of September 1, 2007
‘dick’ is #6 on the list:
100 of the Top Delinquent Income Taxpayer Accounts
and HE wants to advise YOU about the tax implications of a Clinton win.
lovely…
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:13 pm
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 3:46 pm
Kenneth, what is the connection between being delinquent on one's taxes and having an opinion on Hillary and the stock market? Also what's the connection between these two topics and Fred Thompson fading (or not)?
Comment by Igor R. — October 10, 2007 @ 8:27 pm