October 8, 2007
Hillary Will Trigger Stock Crash (Dick Morris)
I give political analysis, not financial advice. But sometimes, the two closely merge. So here’s what I think: Hillary Clinton will cause the stock market to crash as her likely election as president approaches.
Hillary says she wants to raise the capital gains tax. Now it's 15 percent. She might hike it to 30 percent, or she might eliminate it altogether and tax profits from sales of stock or houses as ordinary income at 40 percent.
So what will happen? As Election Day approaches, smart investors will sell their stocks because they will want to pay 15 percent, not 30 or 40 percent. They’ll realize that if they wait, they’ll just have to cough up more in taxes. That will cause stock prices to tank and with them our retirement savings. And that is only the start of the many gifts we’d get if Hillary becomes president. Only the start.
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You are correct. It could also affect real estate in that investors will dump their real estate investments, even at a lower price, as they eye the same capital gains dilemma. Also, her tax fever may become infectious, spreading from one state legislature to the next as they figure they can take the heat for higher taxes if Hillary gets away with it. There's very little doubt she is the consummate career politician. She has never run a business or has any inclination to bother with the effects of government on business or the individual. In her warped mind government is the savior, not the prod. Government never implements anything, it only takes to redistribute wealth to people who don't understand wealth. In doing so, it creates a permanent underclass, which the elite liberals rule with an iron fist. Once a serf, always a serf. Or at least, that's what the liberals desire.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — October 8, 2007 @ 8:29 am
No need to worry, Dick. Hillary may win the nomination, but she won't win the Presidency.
First of all, the country isn't ready for a woman President. Secondly, the country has had enough of Clinton's in the White House.
Third, since 1992, people have studied Hillary and they are smart enough to know that although her outward appearance has changed over time, she is still the same conniving, backstapping person she has always been.
If Hillary wins the nomination, we will have a Republican president in 2009.
Comment by John Simmons — October 8, 2007 @ 9:26 am
Dick, God forbid you lose a few dollars in the stock market. I do realize that is sooo much more important then losing thousands of our soldiers in Iraq.
Glad to see you have your priorities in order.
Comment by DailyKnow — October 8, 2007 @ 10:57 am
Hillary is like a corrosive disease, bad for everything that has strength and only good for generating rot.
Comment by Igor R. — October 8, 2007 @ 11:28 am
Is Mr. Morris willing to back this up and liquidate all his investments prior to the election?
And if it doesn't happen, will he retire as his record for predictions will be worse than my dogs?
Comment by sid — October 8, 2007 @ 11:50 am
Why are we wasting perfectly good electricity reading what a Bush Apologist like Morris thinks?
Comment by TimPundit — October 8, 2007 @ 11:56 am
My political genesis along with my epiphany that Fox "News" was totally full of crap was way back when I was watching Fox "News" during the 2000 Presidential election campaign. Before that time, I wasn't a partisan and I wasn't paying really close attention to politics and I actually used to watch Fox "News". Over the course of around a week I realized that I was being propagandized, actually told what to think and who to like. All day long for weeks the message coming from Fox "News" was that Bush would be good for the stock market and Gore would be bad. This really made me wonder what the heck Fox "News" was talking about. I had made alot of money on my stocks during the Clinton Presidency, how could things get any better with Bush? Or worse with Gore? It really didn't make any sense. Needless to say, I LOST a ton of money after Bush stole office.
The funny thing about Dick Morris saying that the markets will crash when Hillary wins the primaries is that that is exactly when the markets started tanking back in 2000, when Bush won the primary. Of course, Fox "News" blame shifted the stock crash away from Bush and blamed Clinton for it by creating the "Clinton Bubble" meme.
It is the height of irresponsiblity for a "News" corporation to be using monetary scare tactics to influence political elections in this country, especially when they are obviously making things up in order to promote one political party over another.
Rupert Murdoch and the "News" corporation are one of the worst things that has ever happened to America. Murdoch, who had to buy his citizenship, is tearing America apart.
Comment by OxyCon — October 8, 2007 @ 12:20 pm
Stick to political analysis. In fact, don't even do that.
Comment by lowellfield — October 8, 2007 @ 1:24 pm
And don't forget the locust swarms. She's also going to be responsible for all future hurricanes, tsunamis, and every drunk driving accident in 2009. You're plain and simple an idiot. And that's being kind. Sad thing is you apparently make a living out of it.
Comment by matt — October 8, 2007 @ 1:28 pm
Made money on stocks during the Clinton administration? Apparently you got out before the stock market crash.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — October 8, 2007 @ 1:36 pm
Why is The Hill publishing this brief, poorly-argued, snippy piece of non-analysis by someone whose history of falling out with the Clinton's is known to all? Whether the core point turns out to be right or wrong, what purpose is served by publishing this tiny tantrum?
Comment by anonymous — October 8, 2007 @ 1:40 pm
"I give political analysis, not financial advice"
exactly. so shut the f-k up.
Comment by bob — October 8, 2007 @ 1:52 pm
TipToe, when talking about Hillary and shoes, please spell them as "Hsu's".
Comment by Igor R. — October 8, 2007 @ 2:03 pm
Dick is right…this has been a serious discussion in my office….watch that 401k,IRA, go poof.
Comment by Jim J. — October 8, 2007 @ 2:36 pm
I think that it is already happening as investors get out of the real estate market. This began to happen after the 06 elections as smart investors knew the democrats would hike tas rates. as the investors left, the market slowed and then strarted to shake out the under-qualified borrowers.
Comment by Jimmy — October 8, 2007 @ 2:40 pm
My, this appears to be sore spot with the Clinton campaign. Might make a good ad.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — October 8, 2007 @ 2:41 pm
Hey Oxycon:
Has it ever occured to you to watch another channel than Fox "News" (great gag, btw, and just as funny the 10th time around!). I for one am sick of watching DNC talking points regurgitated on the other networks. To each his own.
Comment by Buzz — October 8, 2007 @ 2:44 pm
At least she seems to have realized that Socialized Health care would have the same effect. The entire worlds biotech and pharmaceuticals industry relies on American Markets to cover their research funds.
Comment by Jimmy the Dhimmi — October 8, 2007 @ 3:00 pm
"Dick is right…this has been a serious discussion in my office….watch that 401k,IRA, go poof. "….
Then your office is full of morons if this is considered "serious".
Comment by TimPundit — October 8, 2007 @ 3:04 pm
Wall Street loves Hillary Clinton. #1
===========
Latest numbers since July 15
Hillary Clinton's Wall Street backers:John Marck/Morgan StanleyHeidi Miller, JP Morgan's Chief Exec. of Treasury and Security Services.Alan Patricof, co-founder Apax PartnersThomas H. Lee, Lee Equity PartnersThomas Steyer, FarallonJames D. Robinson III, Former CEO Amex (former Republican)Roger Alltman, EvercoreBlair Effron, CenterviewGlenn Hutchins, Silver Lake,Steve Rattner, Quadrangle (former Lazard)Clifton Robbins, BlueHarbour GroupJim Simons, Renaissance TechnolgiesRichard Perry, Perry CapitalDavid Shaw, DE ShawGlenn Dubin, Highbridge capitalAlso: Warren Buffet.
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/20160731
Comment by OxyCon — October 8, 2007 @ 3:05 pm
Wall Street loves Hillary Clinton #2
============
The Green Zone
Wall Street's Bullish On Democrats
"Follow the money," specifically the amount of it pouring into presidential candidates' coffers from Wall Street, was longshot Democratic presidential candidate Mike Gravel's mantra during last night's presidential debate. A check of the finance reports shows Wall Street is indeed playing a major role in financing several of the Democratic candidates. The securities and investment sectors have plowed $3.3 million into Sen. Hillary Clinton's account, and put $3.1 million behind Sen. Barack Obama, according to this review by the Center for Responsive Politics. Both are out-gunning Republicans Rudolph Giuliani and Mitt Romney on Wall Street.
Even more money is flowing to the top Democrats from hedge funds and private equity firms. As for Gravel, he had a reason to feel sore. His take from Wall Street? $3,500.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/07/24/wall_street_bullish_on_clinton.html
Comment by OxyCon — October 8, 2007 @ 3:06 pm
Wall Street Loves Hillary Clinton #3
==============
Wall Street's big-money bets for the White House
by David Lightman
The big investors are investing heavily in Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Chris Dodd.
Data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington research group, found Clinton, the New York senator, got $3.3 million, and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, at $3.1 million, from securities and investment interests for their presidential campaign.
http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2007/07/wall_streets_bigmoney_bets_for.html
Comment by OxyCon — October 8, 2007 @ 3:13 pm
Lastly, I hope Dick Morris understands that the only personal attribute he has, which is soley responsible for his employment under Rupert Murdoch, Roger Ailes and Fox "News", is his "Clinton Derangement Syndrome".
Without your "CDS", Dick, you'd be of no use to the extreme right wingers at the "News" Corporation.
Comment by OxyCon — October 8, 2007 @ 3:17 pm
Presidents get way too much credit and blame for stock market and economy performance. There could be a pullback associated with another Clinton presidency, especially since that would be coupled with a Democratic congress. Clinton had a Republican congress (Remember his "The era of big government is over" statement? You would never have heard that if there had been a Democratic congress in power). Gridlock government leads to a good business climate, as business does best when left alone (see Carter and Nixon for economic tinkering). There will be a crash in real estate and stocks by 2011, but the forces that will cause it are much larger than any president or congress, and nothing can be done to stop this upcoming economic contraction. Demography is the reason for the next crash, together with a timing that also coincides with an ongoing cycle. We had a recession in 1980-81, 1990-91, 2000-2001, and it will hit again in 2010 or 2011. The FED is delaying the inevitable for now. This downturn will last longer and be deeper than usual as we head into deflationary times. If Democrats are in power we will have tinkering (price controls, protectionism, etc.) which will make matters worse, but it's going to happen anyway. Democrats will get much more blame than they deserve as this contraction lasts through about 2017, and unemployment hits around 15%.
Comment by Steve-o — October 8, 2007 @ 3:36 pm
oxycon, please skip the meth in your next pint of kool aid.
Comment by Jimmy — October 8, 2007 @ 3:36 pm
"Dick, God forbid you lose a few dollars in the stock market. I do realize that is sooo much more important then losing thousands of our soldiers in Iraq.
"Glad to see you have your priorities in order."
One important reason the Americans suffer so few casualties in their wars is their great wealth. Without such wealth, the Americans will still fight wars, but they'll do so without one of their great advantages. More of "our soldiers" will die, you simple leftist.
Comment by Kralizec — October 8, 2007 @ 3:46 pm
Kralizec, you don't understand! The leftists WANT the economy to suffer. Bad economy = lots of victims = lots of promises of taxpayer support by the Democrats = Democratic electoral gains. As to soldiers dying in any war, to them it means (a) the war is unjust (b) the soldiers were duped (c) stop the war. The more soldiers die, the more they can scream about the evil Republicans or whoever without any regard for the reasons for the war. In general, the link between "the wealth of nations" and the overall level of the satisfaction of the populace is foreign to them, because they don't believe that the evil capitalists share their wealth with the downtrodden. Why do you think Communist groups are the most active ones in the anti-war protests?
Comment by Igor R. — October 8, 2007 @ 4:31 pm
#9, Matt,
Why shouldn't we blame the next president for every negative thing that befalls our nation? After all, wasn't in BushCo working with the Zionist and the Halliburton Nazi's that destroyed New Orleans with their incredible Hurricane Machine??
Comment by Sgt. Fury — October 8, 2007 @ 4:55 pm
True. And a Giuliani or Romney election will also 'cause' a stock market crash.
Actually the cause will be the war, the tax cuts, the collapsing dollar, the hangover from misguided low rates and housing exuberance, and the natural swing of the pendulum of animal spirits.
It's bizarre that the GOP is now the party of the free-lunchers. We can run a war and cut taxes on the rich, but hiking cigarette taxes to pay for children's medical insurance is irresponsible.
The markets will fluctuate whoever is in office, but in the long run we will do be better with leaders who have a sense of responsibility, fiscal and otherwise.
Comment by NoFreeLunch — October 8, 2007 @ 4:59 pm
I rarely agree with Dick Morris about anything, but I think he's on to something here. She (Hillary) has made her Marxism clear - she wants to take, take, take - all profits from oil companies, the whole national health care industry, all the perks home owners enjoy in tax breaks and even more of our hard earned money in higher taxes. She has made it all very clear that her desire is cradle-to-grave gov't in our faces. She is the most dangerous person running for office yet, and I believe a Hillary presidency would spell doom for this country.
Comment by jdawg — October 8, 2007 @ 5:14 pm
There are three scenarios which fit the financial forecast for the next five years.
Samuelson's hoped for 2008 recession is advanced to the present because of changes in the Republican leadership. The limits to credit and credibility have already opened the discount window on the Bush Economy. Thus the ongoing inversion of Republican political fortunes.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18237643/site/newsweek/
While some might party in 2009, it comes as cold comfort to know that peak solar chaos brings further political change as the climate, once bathed in red, turns to blue and possibly even green. The BusCliBusCli-Bubble is only thus continuous. Another recession will only bring another [Whoopie - no new Republican] rally so caveat emptor.
Hey - I don't even get paid to make this stuff up. "~}
Comment by neokneme — October 8, 2007 @ 6:00 pm
The big investors are investing heavily in Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Chris Dodd.
Comment by Domain Url — October 9, 2007 @ 2:57 am
Interesting. Dick Morris appears to have hit a political raw nerve with his hypothesis on the stock market. Methinks they doth protest too much.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — October 9, 2007 @ 8:34 am
Yes and the failed business man did our country so much good?
The economy will tank, not because ms. Clinton is elected, but because the republicans ran this country into the ground during the last 6 years.
Don't blame me, I didn't vote for the Texas idiot!!!!!
Comment by diane — October 9, 2007 @ 4:00 pm
diane, and how did the republicans damage the economy? What a ridiculous rant with no supporting evidence!
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2007 @ 4:33 pm
'dick', I stand corrected. it only takes 5m for you to cleanse any of the inconvenient truths re: your ONGOING TAX EVASION in CT (1443h > 1448h), VERY efficient, Goebbels would have been proud of your message control.
Nichts, hier zu sehen…
Entlang bewegen, JETZT!!
One more time, 3X is the charm' is it not?
Check Connecticut's Dept of Revenue Services for the 'dick's' ranking on their:
'100 of the Top Delinquent Income Taxpayer Accounts'
http://www.ct.gov/DRS/cwp/view.asp?a=1453&q=296114&drsNav=%7C
'dick' is currently #6 on their list. his wiki page should be updated, he was listed as #7, owing > $280,000!
Financial advice from this guy?!
SURE. Run in the other direction!
Comment by Kenneth E. Tucker — October 10, 2007 @ 2:59 pm
Hey there, Dick, are you mellowing in your O.C.D. about Hillary?
You forgot to list Armageddon, the immediate eruption of the Yellowstone caldera and a nuclear winter as the results of the election of Hillary to the presidency.
Comment by K.M. Carlin — October 10, 2007 @ 4:21 pm
It's true there will be a world stock crash. But Hillary may or may not cause it. The ball is already rollin.
Millions are starving while the rich Americans squander and greedily waste a hugely disproportionate amound of food and resources. This is a crime which must end. A stock crash is the only thing to WAKE UP this sleeping giant. America must become great again, great as in a leader in generosity and sharing…
Comment by harbinger — October 19, 2007 @ 10:55 pm
Yes sure people all think they know what it is and may even understand the effects of inflation and can understand why down the road this often leads to the devaluation of a currency but few will know or understand how the money from the BoE printing press gets distributed without someone dumping it from a helicopter.
School history lessons will have taught you that the American revolution was all about freeing the slaves and therefore will not know what script money was or why it placed brother against brother or more precise the bank of England against other new banks.
Some here may had come across the words gold standard but how many know that it was illegal for an American citizen to hold gold and they were all forced to sell it to the government at a fixed rate that was below market value and that was not that long ago.
Wild west gold miners that didn’t starve to death used banks to store their gold and the gold was weighed and a hand written receipt was given out but soon people discovered that these hand written receipts for gold could be forged and hence the need for a official receipt that became known as the American dollar.
Later this gold was lent out but soon that gave way to cheques and before too long the value of the paper money was far in excess of the value of the gold held by the banks and when the miners discovered this discrepancy they were offered something new at the time called interest payments to keep them all happy.
What the miners soon became unhappy about was another new invention called inflation where a ten dollar bill was suddenly worth only nine grams of gold and not the ten they had originally deposited with the bank.
Fast forward to today and we have shorts, longs , stop losses , petrodollars, futures , derivatives , CDO’s, and something you may had come across on the news called the sub prime crisis that gave you all a 0.25% cut in interest rates but also lead to the GBP buying you 1.5% less from abroad.
Now hands up all those people that have a pension fund with XYZ who I just so happen to be working for just now who can honestly say they know what money really is.
Bring yourself up to speed by watching
Money as debt
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279
The money masters
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936
Monopoly men
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7065177340464808778
Now lets talk small figures like the £1800 it has just cost every UK tax payer to bail out northern rock http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/19/nrock119.xml and that’s just looking at the official figures.
Lets move on to the real deal and that the $500tr plus derivatives market that is starting to unwind and that alone weighs in at a staggering $90,000 for every man woman and child on the earth.
Please don’t take my word for it and look around the internet and you will soon find many people agreeing the figure is anywhere between $451tr and $600tr with others showing calculations that put it as high as $2200tr and shown below. http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0624.html
Hopefully those still reading this article can make the link back to pension funds and by now will understand the personal impact this will have on them directly and maybe tempted to stop being too greedy and to reduce there exposure to the banks and the markets but what we have left is Gold that I believe is now over priced or bricks and mortar that has already peaked in most parts of the world and is now on it’s way down again.
I was stopped at Heathrow the other day after clearing customs when I was stopped and asked if I had any money on me to which I replied about 200 quid and then the gentleman asked if that was all in sterling or was some in Euros’ sir ! kinda makes you ask yourself what the hell is going on as I am sure many Americans are asking themselves after the offices of the liberty dollar were raided a few weeks ago.
http://www.courierpress.com/news/2007/nov/15/liberty-dollar-office-raided/
Banks can try to hyper inflate their way out of trouble to some degree much like Germany did in the 1930’s and Zimbabwe is trying today but it’s likely to fail and that’s why I think we are facing a situation just like Germany and Zimbabwe where food and water becomes much more important than bit’s of paper and ownership of a few meters of mud and if I am wrong then you can always eat your stack of food or go and do your bit for charity before the sell by date is reached.
Comment by Mr Smith — December 25, 2007 @ 5:44 pm
The only cure for our economy and our foreign policy is RON PAUL!!!!!
Comment by Jerry — January 4, 2008 @ 2:47 pm
She already has caused the stocks to crash. Go back to 1992 when the duo took office. See what happened to the Pharmaceutical sector after she took on the first lady role of fixing the Pharmaceutical industry. I was at Abbott and watched a lot of people close to retirement have their retirement door slammed shut on them when Abbott lost almost 25% of value.
Comment by Roger — March 4, 2008 @ 2:32 pm