The Obama Arch, The Hillary Counter-Punch (Brent Budowsky)

The campaign has now taken on a very clear trajectory, or put more precisely, two very clear trajectories.

The Obama arch is clear: The more Obama can campaign in a state, the more he wins, which gives him the edge in the very near future. The more he campaigns, his numbers go up on a national level, and his numbers rise with groups including whites, Hispanics and women.

The Hillary counter-punch is equally clear. Any time it appears that the Obama surge moves close to being decisive, there is a Hillary Clinton counter-surge led by female voters who rally to her cause like the cavalry, and now, to some degree, by Hispanics.

One major variable is whether Obama can continue his slow upward climb with Hispanic voters from the 20 percent range to the 30 percent range as he has, and move higher, or whether he cannot. Advantage Hillary, but the question is open.

Finally, while in my view Hillary's "experience" is overrated on a governing level, it is vitally important on a campaigning level. She has been through the political wars and is resilient beyond description, to her credit.

Now, some thoughts going forward: First, as everyone who has read my columns and posts or heard me on talk radio knows, I am a strong supporter of Barack Obama. But I do not do spin and I do not do punditry; the first is repellant to voters and the second has been so wrong so often because the pundit and insider classes are almost totally removed from the reality of American life.

With that caveat:

1. For practical purposes the Democratic race is dead even and the discussion of super-delegates entirely misses the point. Hillary has the edge, but most super-delegates have not taken a position, and in the end if there is one candidate who appears significantly stronger against Republicans, super-delegates will move towards that candidate.

2. I have often observed that Barack runs well ahead of Hillary in match-ups against most Republicans, but only slightly ahead in match-ups against McCain. There are some signs that Barack is pulling ahead here; in one recent poll McCain beat Hillary by 3, while Barack beat McCain by 3.

I predict this trend will continue, but certainly could be wrong. Watch the match-up polls against McCain and watch whether Barack continues his significant advantage with the independent voters, or whether Hillary re-closes this gap.

3. I repeat my view from past columns and past posts that 2008 is shaping up as a repeat of 1932 — a historically realigning election that will sweep Democrats to a gigantic victory in both the House and Senate regardless of presidential results, with Democrats having an edge in the presidential race, but not yet decisive against McCain.

4. The pundit class has not come close to fully appreciating the power of the Obama fundraising machine of well over a half million small donors. This is recurring money and revolutionary in impact and I predict this gap continues and expands. This will be a major advantage going forward for Barack and, maybe more important, a major selling point for the super-delegates and Democratic elected officials across the country. I would put the probability of Barack or Hillary being nominated at a dead-even 50-50 and ignore any chattering-class view to the contrary, in either direction.

Finally, as the campaign enters a red-hot and high-stakes phase, I am going to suggest that supporters of Barack and Hillary both adhere to a 12th Commandment, similar to Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment. We should keep our commentaries as respectful and civil as possible.

There may be moments, such as certain tactics employed prior to South Carolina, where we should speak out — and there is every reason to support our candidates and answer charges we believe to be false, as necessary.

In the end, I believe we are on the brink of a historic political realignment. In my view it is better realized and more powerfully achieved with Barack because he mobilizes and inspires forces that increase the electorate and he wins support from political independents that is transforming, while Hillary has alienated, fairly or not, close to half the nation.

However, no matter who wins the nomination, our hope and aspiration should be that the nominee, either Barack or Hillary, can achieve the broad landslide and realignment, which is why I have emphasized the positive about my candidate and avoided the most nasty elements that only hurt the ultimate nominee.

And now, we enter the main event.

Archived under: Presidential Campaign
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