March 20, 2008
Super Dilemma (A.B. Stoddard)
Timing is everything in politics, as I have said too many times in this space, but the confluence of the chances for re-votes in Michigan and Florida folding and the historic speech on race by Barack Obama is remarkable.
As Hillary Clinton struggles to portray the Democratic race as competitive and close, the conventional wisdom has set in — the superdelegates have to go with Obama, it's over for her. Our colleague Dick Morris, fellow blogger and columnist at The Hill, said this week that the party would only pass over the winner of pledged delegates and hand the nomination to Clinton if Obama were in jail. Daily Kos has proclaimed Clinton hard at work on civil war since the only way she can win is by dividing her party. Handing Clinton the nomination would amount to the Democratic Party kissing the youth vote and the black vote goodbye.
Yet behind the scenes, superdelegates keep hearing from the Clintons — that Hillary wins the big states, that Hillary can end up with the higher popular vote in June, that she (finally) polls better against John McCain, that her national poll lead is widening, that she will win Pennsylvania. Most importantly they are hearing that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will spell the end for Obama and give Republicans the White House if her party chooses him.
Will the Wright hate-speech argument persuade spooked superdelegates? Will Al Gore — popular vote martyr — counsel his party to reject the winner of pledged delegates, and probably of the popular vote as well? Did Obama's courageous speech on race impress or convince the party that Obama is presidential, the right man at the right moment?
If I were a superdelegate in the Democratic Party I would not want to have to choose between bypassing the vote winner and losing young and black voters, and I wouldn't want to risk losing the White House one more time.
Glad I'm not one.
***
WHAT WILL THE SUPERS DO? ASK A.B. returns Monday, March 24 — Please join me for my weekly Q & A video posts by sending useful, interesting and entertaining questions to askab@thehill.com.
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Blaming the candidates for the fact the party is divided is questionable. The party is divided because it is composed of two different left wing encampments and they are voting accordingly. Obama is commander in chief of the far left wing of the party who wants to run from Iraq and who believe America is rotten and evil and only they can save it with their left wing politics compared to Hillary, who is Pants Suit in Chief of the rest of the party who is left of center and wants to pull out of Iraq under their conditions. The only thing historic about Obama's speech is the love fest it initiated with liberal pundits who are still gushing over the basis of his speech, not the substance. I doubt if anyone in the party will listen to Al Gore on politics. They might want to hear about his global warming which is a thinly disguised slap at the business community. That in essence is the membership of the Democratic Party. Play the victim card and the anti-American card, and forget what got us here to begin with.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — March 20, 2008 @ 4:15 pm
They can always switch parties and vote Republican.
Comment by Igor R. — March 20, 2008 @ 4:30 pm
I agree the Sups have a Major Dilemma. Obama is unknown and badly untested. Thanks to the Rev. Wright videos his former supports feel cheated by Obama.
The problem with Obama was his campaign ran as though it was holy are something. His supports learned to late that the guy is a chameleon. The only good thing about a chameleon politian is they can change to fit any situation. However, Obama thanks to Rev. Wright has a huge problem. I think his candidacy is over.
Comment by John — March 20, 2008 @ 5:02 pm
AB please don't add more confusion to the already confusing nomination fight. Only a few days ago, the networks were obssessing about Obama's declining chances because of the Rev Jeremiah Wright controversy. Now you're saying "conventional wisdom" is betting on an Obama victory? The Michigan re-vote measure which looked so promising a week ago is now being shelved though 10 deep pocket Democratic voters have pledged to fund it. Let's keep the fight clean and stop confusing each other over all the swirling controversy's about one thing or another.
Comment by Ralph — March 20, 2008 @ 5:49 pm
Conventional wisdom had it early on that it was a walk in the park for Hillary. Then Obamamainia set in, in-spite of his very left leaning (most liberal voting record in the Senate) agenda. The war, Bush hatred, the economy in the tank (probably not), and health care concerns made it almost insurmountable for the Republican to hold the Presidency. Remember how the conservatives (I being one) couldn't decide on a candidate. Well we did, because we have a system that works. No one is ever perfect, including McCain, but compared to Hillary and Obama, not even a contest. The Democratic Leadership (don't you just love Dean - YYEEOOOWWW) must be pulling their hair out. And then there are the Democratic Governors, past and present in New York and also New Jersey and their sexual indiscretions. Don't forget Pelosi and Reid and their complete failure in getting anything done except obstruction of Bush which they continue to fail at, as well as their chant of beat Bush/McCain. He's not running fools. One doesn't want to get too confident. Things out always happen which change complexions. However, with Barack continuing to see Rev. Wright as his 'Mentor" and Hillary being Hillary, it is certainly looking promising. Yes, the super-delegates are in a fix of their own doing. Looking back, they must wonder how did we get in this mess. Answer, no core values and going with the will of the masses; never works right or very long. One is suppose to lead the masses, not follow them.
Comment by John B — March 20, 2008 @ 6:40 pm
Looks like both Dem. candidates are mortally wounded after mediocre performance over the last 2-3 months. Each of them needs to add a white male, experienced Governor for VP slot to add credibility to a ticket and carry a battleground state.
Comment by Misha F — March 21, 2008 @ 2:06 am
Before the Ohio primary I thought Obama would be the tougher Dem candidate. The fact that he brought in so many young voters, more African Americans and wouldn't lose Clinton's supporters.
But now it seems like he'll lose big chunks of blue collar white voters (Reagan Democrats)
Obama loses PA, OH and maybe NJ
Clinton loses CO, IA but has a better shot in OH and brings in AR.
The Super Delegates have to pick Obama unless somehow Clinton wins the popular vote without FL and MI. And then they will lose.
Comment by Jay from Texas — March 21, 2008 @ 2:46 pm
Wow. This was a solid, mildly moderate perspective post bringing insight into how this nasty campaign more and more puts the SuperD's in a tough situation and hurts the Dem party. And I can't believe all the punchy comments on it.
Chameleon? Holy campaign? Far left wing?
Uh, no. Inspirational, hopeful campaign but I'm pretty darn sure Huckabee cornered the market on the Holy campaign. (By the way GOP'pers, where's the anti-Huckabee venom since he defended Obama's association with Rev. Wright on Morning Joe? Contreversial religious leaders were cool until GOP lost a monopoly on the market?)
Far left wing? Most liberal voting record in the Senate? lol. Please. Under a Republican Admin with barely a Dem majority, that's like being the most Buddhist man in Saudi Arabia. No, Obama will look like a moderate when the Dems gain hold of Congress and the White House. Sweet swing of the pendalum - after 8 years of a nightmare for liberals, there's justice in the sleeplessness GOP'pers are starting to have.
Chameleon? Every politician is a chameleon because every politician adapts to new circumstances. Yes, even Georgie Porgie 'we're winning Iraq' 'economy is fine' adapts to the political reality of a recession or complications of nation building post-war in a highly factionalized country.
I think, more than anything, GOP'pers are getting nervous that nothing seems to stick to Obama. Proclaiming McCain is going to win? Please. A guy talking about staying in Iraq for 100 years at the cost of $144 billion a year during a recession when he admittedly doesn't understand economics? …And I thought us bleeding heart liberals owned all wishful thinkers.
As for "conventional wisdom" complicating the matter, dooode, it's a political reality that Obama will likely win the pledged delegates and the nomination. And, it is not likely that the DNC will remove FL and MI delegates. If removed, the needed number of delegates could drop from 2025 to 1842 and Obama could win outright. Before June, in fact.
Comment by WM — March 21, 2008 @ 2:48 pm
Misha, please wake up and smell the coffee..If you thin Obama is out wait 2 months from now and watch how fast he takes off again against Hillary and then watch how bad he beats mcclain in theh GE. You know and I know that the only thing gong for mcclain is the war effort and he screwed that up 3 times in the last 2-3 days…battleground states..look around you obama has already taken some of those already.
Comment by Jim — March 21, 2008 @ 3:14 pm
Jim, after looking around me the "battleground states" Obama won in a Democratic primaries by promising freebies to be paid by my tax dollars. He won among voters who faint by the dozen when they see "Big-O". That's a far cry from a general election. In a state more closely resembling a general electorate (Ohio), his performance was similar to Dukakis riding a tank. The same thing would happen in Pennsylvania and Indiana, so he'll come to convention with more delegates than Hillary but with a loosing streak. That's when real fun should begin…
Comment by Misha F — March 21, 2008 @ 6:28 pm
Thanks for putting things back in perspective WM, unfortunately there are some posters here that deliberately post punchy comments year-round. It's just what they do.
To A.B.'s point, the only thing "super" about being a superdelegate is the power you wield. They know that the GE is ages away in political terms, so many have been waiting and holding on to that power. Time is running out, however, and the migration of superdelegates to the frontrunner, Sen. Obama., seems likely to continue, perhaps even more quickly now after the endorsement of Gov. Richardson.
Comment by Derek D. — March 22, 2008 @ 12:13 pm
Hum….ONly if Obama were in Jail? Well, it is possible that Sen Clinton may be facing perjury charges according to the plaintiff in the Fraud Trial.
The Clinton’s are named defendants in a Civil Fraud Case connected to Campaign Finance irregularities and have not disclosed the appeal of the case. There will be a trial date set at a hearing on April 25th, just 3 days after the key Pennsylvania Primary for the Fraud Case Paul v. Clinton in the Los Angeles Superior Court. Plaintiff says he will call Gov Rendell will be a witness in the case. He probably should not be raising funds for Michigan until he has answered questions about this 2000 Clinton Fundraiser. From what I understand, this case began when prior to Sen. Clinton’s 2000 New York Senate campaign and also raised donations for Pres. Clinton’s Library.
We don’t know the Clinton’s side of the story because they have not disclosed this. But Peter Paul tells his side of the story on Video.
Just Google: “Hillary Uncensored”
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019
Los Angeles Superior Court of Appeals: http://www.lasuperiorcourt.org
Then click on Civil Case Summaries and enter case number to see case history.
Case Number: BC304174
Los Angeles Superior Court Public Information Office at (213) 974-5227.
The GOP has utilized the services of a 527 Citizen’s United to produce a 90 Minute Movie they are already showing to defeat her in the Fall if she wins the nomination. The GOP uses her Fraud Case in their movie as one of many reasons she should not be President.
This is the Movie that the Citizens United has created for the GOP to for the fall.
1) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_PEHskBuQg
2) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5_SfPvtY-s
3) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog6WBL7jog
4) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqlYlTxnUdE
5) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9hXf5yckbY
6) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKftVPA85jI
7) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCQOgTKtNhA
9) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm-5MrOrqPE
Comment by Maybe still a Democrat — March 23, 2008 @ 4:01 pm
Jim, but Obama spent 20 years listening to an America-hater without saying a world. Took his daughters to hear the hate, after the hater Baptized them. His wife has never been proud of America, until one particular black dude started winning in the primaries. You think everyone will forget?
Obama has been found out. He is not the President for all Americans, he is a Marxist with a solid grip on the black vote.
Comment by Igor R. — March 24, 2008 @ 1:55 am
Igor;
You have to listening to a racist nut for years too but we still let you post. Every thing that you post about Obama, apply that to Rush, Hannity, Falwell, Robertson and the rest of you that want to keep on dividing America. It is now time to move forward, join us if you will but your lies and division will not be tolerated.
Comment by Mike Coleman — March 24, 2008 @ 3:16 pm
Igor, Igor, Igor. What you don't get is that McCain has a hateful religious backer as well. I certainly wouldn't want a hothead like McCain with his finger on the nuke trigger.
Obama will kick McCain's arse when your house value goes to a dollar later this year.
Comment by Gary Anderson — March 24, 2008 @ 9:23 pm
And Gary, under Obama, Igor's house will be worth 10 cents, after the massive tax increases and enormous social spending that he will implement.
Rest assurred, though, Hillary is not going to let Obama get the nomination. She will get the super-delegates to vote for her - the Clinton war machine is just getting started. All this means that McCain will be President.
Comment by emjeff — March 25, 2008 @ 3:27 pm