April 11, 2008
Hillary Will Withdraw and Her Stature Soars (Brent Budowsky)
Ignore everything you hear on cable talk shows. This is what will happen, and why.
First, sometime between the days after the Pennsylvania primary and the days after North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton will drop out of the presidential campaign, endorse Obama, and watch her stature among Democrats and independents soar.
Second. The campaign is over. Period. The only way that Hillary can win is, to quote a former Louisiana governor, if Barack Obama gets caught in bed with a live man or dead woman. Nothing is impossible, bad news could strike either candidate, but is it highly unlikely and nothing Hillary can do would change this equation.
Third. The Clintons know this. Any pundit talk to the contrary is pathetically out of touch with reality, as most pundit talk on television is. What is happening now is a Clintonian exit strategy. If Hillary does withdraw as I predict, when I predict, her popularity skyrockets and her negatives among Democrats and many independents fall substantially. In the unlikely event lightning strikes against Obama, Hillary is still around with far higher positives.
Fourth, Hillary only hurts herself by attacking Obama with questionable tactics. Her negative ratings go through the roof. Presidents cannot be elected this way. Period. End of discussion.
Any ignorant or trite talk to the contary from the pundit class, who have so often praised negative tactics as brilliant that were totally destructive to Hillary, are nothing more than gaseous emissions that contribute to global warming.
I repeat: Hillary's negative attacks against Obama hurt her numbers more than Obama's.
Fifth, there is a very clear pattern to the polling over the last three months almost without exception. When Hillary takes cheap shots at Obama, Obama remains nearly even to slightly ahead of Hillary, while both candidates lose to McCain.
When Hillary avoids the cheap shots, which to her credit she has been doing the last few days, the Obama lead over Hillary rises, but both Hillary and Obama defeat McCain.
Sixth, any discussion that Hillary might prefer McCain defeat Obama, which some of her attacks give credence to, are politically deadly to Hillary's ambitions long term and short term.
Conversly, if Hillary drops out as I predict, when I predict, not only do her favorables move far up and her negatives move far down, but she would get a fair share of credit for an Obama general election win, with no risk of blame for a McCain win that would be politically deadly to Hillary.
Many (but not all) Clinton insiders generally agree with these assessments, and anyone who says anything to the contrary on the talk shows is either lying or not wired in.
Obviously events can change the fortune of either candidate, any day, but the most likely scenario is that Hillary drops out within the month and later concludes it was the wisest decision she would ever make.
For Hillary the presidential dream is not dead. This is not her year. If Obama loses, with the scenario descibed here, she has a huge shot in 2012, without Hillary being blamed for 2008. If Obama wins, under my scenario, Hillary has a very good shot in 2016 and many very good career options between now and then.
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It's hard to fathom the mindset that admires Hillary Clinton. Her campaign appears to be nothing more than a money conduit for her husband, and she wouldn't know the truth if it hit her upside the head. It's simply amazing that someone who so clearly despises the American public, is so clearly admired by many. Maybe this is the end game of dumbing the school system down, or the beginning of the end game to sell out the American Constitution.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — April 11, 2008 @ 3:40 pm
I agree with Brent's assessment 100%. She may win Pennsylvania and that may be her last hurrah. She is 20 points behind in North Carolina and she may decide to quit before that primary.
I suggested in my blog March 26 that she should stand down.
Comment by Ajaz — April 11, 2008 @ 3:53 pm
Hillary is simply doing the country a favor by exposing the radical, racist-preacher loving, terrorist-friendly Obama. The country needs either of them like another 9/11, but if it weren't for her nobody would know the truth about Obama.
Comment by Igor R. — April 11, 2008 @ 4:28 pm
Very interesting! I made the same prediction here:
http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=951
warning my Oregon readers not to get too excited about having their May 20 primary "matter" for once. Ballots go out at the end of April, so maybe it will only half-matter.
Comment by torridjoe — April 11, 2008 @ 4:39 pm
Sad that you can't hit this one right about the "Louisiana Governor".
First, a live MAN could be excused by the liberal, and he at worse, could be said to be consensual engager if one couldn't buy that he was merely a masseure. A dead woman is tough, but a dead girl fatally wounds a politician. Hence the quote is to maintain viability as long as you're "not caught with a dead girl or live boy". You might think it's ok to misquote a Louisiana, but here at the Bayou and Pelican State, we take our politics & politicians seriously.
But even still, you are on point to say that Hillary is toast; she's been toast before Texas & after Texas.
One can wonder whether she just wants to get on the ticket by dragging for so long while saying that her supporters are out there only because only she could have brought them out (and a third won't vote for Barry but McCain), to be a in a better position as VP to run in 2016?
Comment by Hugh Thibodeaux — April 11, 2008 @ 5:31 pm
Dream on! Obama does not have enough delegates to claim nomination even after all primaries are over. Why should our fearless Hillary give up the fight? There are many opportunities between June and August for Obama's campaign to nose dive given his shadow friends, Kenyan roots and his disdain for our country and culture.
Comment by Misha F — April 11, 2008 @ 5:44 pm
After McCain wins this year, why do you think ANY Democrat could EVER be allowed win again?
Comment by Lyle G — April 11, 2008 @ 6:13 pm
"Fourth, Hillary only hurts herself by attacking Obama with questionable tactics. Her negative ratings go through the roof. Presidents cannot be elected this way. Period. End of discussion."
For an article that is based on a variety of 'ifs', I find it difficult to accept the above position. The next President of the United States will establish permanent bases in Iraq, heighten the military engagement with Iran and possibly take out North Korea. The World is starving, soon to be dying. Talk (Obama) will mean nothing by doing nothing. The only chance America has in maintaining anything near resembling a "middle class" in the coming new world order is through the Clintons. Obama is a puppet. Your article negates who controls the voting machines, who controls the money. Your article assumes your vote will actually count.
Comment by Colin — April 11, 2008 @ 7:13 pm
And . . . in the first three months of his term, President Barack Obama will nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court.
Comment by Rey Buono — April 11, 2008 @ 7:29 pm
Obama flanking to the left, criticizing religion and the 2nd amendment. Bill's out blabbering instead of Mark Penn.
Comment by Colin — April 11, 2008 @ 8:10 pm
She would have appeared classy had she dropped her challenge during the "debate" when she said she was honored to be "debating" Sen. Obama. What really spoiled the opportunity for a unity ticket was her subsequent actions. Before the week was over, after the "honored" debate, she was scandalizing him in a very nasty way, with her "shame on you, Barack Obama" public scolding. To be quickly followed with mocking of the oppositions campaign and his followers, as if they believed in the tooth fairy, and were like cult followers. That spelled the end of any form of accomodation for the pair on the same ticket. If she does end this prolonged period of strain between the factions within the party, it will be a welcomed relief after months of mudslinging, and it would allow the party some time for healing the wounds, before taking aim at the enemies of the American people.
Comment by Emilio — April 11, 2008 @ 9:39 pm
I hope not.
Comment by diane b — April 12, 2008 @ 12:18 am
I think you are absolutely right about this. The Democrats will have a hugely successful convention and go into the fall united as never before. The Republicans will be utterly swept away and reduced to the rump party they deserve to be.
Comment by banjobailey — April 12, 2008 @ 1:33 am
Your premise is based on several fallacies and while I do agree that the race is over and perhaps the Clintons are keenly aware of this, I cannot help but think that HRC is still around hoping (praying) for a massive Obama collapse.
She is fighting because this is HER LAST CHANCE. Her year was 2004.
If Obama wins, you assume that his VP will not run in 20016. Further, you assume that after inflicting him with considerable damage in the primaries, and if Obama does in fact lose, you assume that he will not run again in 2012.
HRC will drop out in a month, not because she cares about the DNC, it will be a combination of extreme pressure from party insiders and the realization that the Clinton brand is being irreparably tarnished.
Comment by Theard — April 12, 2008 @ 9:37 am
Rosie (#1 above), you say HRC "wouldn't know the truth if it hit her upside the head". This from a neocon who voted for the worst, dumbest president in our Nation's history, TWICE. Enough said.
Igor (#3), you are paranoid, schizophrenic neocon that believes ANYONE who is GOP is superior, and you voted TWICE for the same Idiot In Chief as Rosie, Twice. Enough said, you're discredited too. You, or Rosie, wouldn't know reality if it hit you upside your noggen.
Lyle (#7) and Misha (#6) are snorting goofballs if they really believe all thier own neocon, braiwashed-by-Rush crap. Jeez, it's 2008.
Comment by Lester — April 12, 2008 @ 12:13 pm
yet another irrelevant personal attack from lester.
good boy, woof.
Comment by j — April 12, 2008 @ 8:09 pm
hillary will hang-on until the very last ballot, the very last day of the convention. she will lie, cheat, and eventually, if possible, steal the nomination. she will purposely drain BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA financially and mentally. she will continue to claim that her chances are good until the very end.
bill and hill aren't going to quit early, giving up before they are officially told to leave(not just the pundits) is a sign of impotence. in their minds, losing on the umpteenth ballot in august is noble. it allows for HRC and her supporters to pull a "i told ya so" next time around.
politically, her best interest is to see mccain win. a GOP victory in november allows her to resume the "inevitable candidate" role around 2010, when the next prez candidates begin their exploratory committees.
it's wishful thinking by brent to assume the clinton's will go quietly into the night with a "gee-golly-team player" mentality.
sorry, but fault the DEMS for keeping them around…
Comment by j — April 12, 2008 @ 10:37 pm
Lester, your blind rage is pathetic to watch.
Comment by Igor R. — April 13, 2008 @ 1:55 am
Brent I hope you are correct. However she has been spinning what Barack said about Pa. citizens. He said they are bitter. Hillary jumped on that and is running it into the ground. She truly wants to destroy this man. Hillary is punishing him for telling the truth. She sat on this for 5 days. But what I find so remarkable is the story hits Friday, by Saturday morning she had stickers with “I’m not bitter,” however I guess they put the box away since this was not getting that much traction except by the talking heads on cable TV.
I have never seen anything quite like it. Of course I did not start paying attention to politics until 911 so this may have occurred before within the same party, nevertheless, Iam appalled by it.
You are correct, Clinton has registered a somewhat significant net change of opinion since January:
HRC:
26% women like her less
15% more
Obama:
23% women like him more
22% less
Women in Pa:
34% Clinton
29% Obama
20% McCain
Personally I like her less and less each day. She is an embarrassment for women IMHO. I used to like her, but I did not trust her– now not at all.
Mathematically she cannot win so her only hope is to destroy Obama to convince the Super delegates to vote for her. I doubt seriously she could win against McCain. HRC may have destroyed any chance for Obama to win the election and then again maybe not. I prefer the latter scenario.
If given the chance Barack Obama will greatly benefit our nation in ways that no other candidate can. Internationally anti-Americanism would decrease exponentially among other reasons. The importance of this cannot be overstated.
Comment by serena1313 — April 13, 2008 @ 3:09 am
'Rosie (#1 above), you say HRC “wouldn’t know the truth if it hit her upside the head”. This from a neocon who voted for the worst, dumbest president in our Nation’s history, TWICE. 'Enough said.'
WHAT IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GEORGE W BEING DUMB (dumb like a fox) AND HILLARY BEING A SOCIOPATHIC LIAR WHO ONLY UNDERSTANDS HER OWN REALITY? CAN'T BOTH STATEMENTS BE TRUE?
Igor (#3), you are paranoid, schizophrenic neocon that believes ANYONE who is GOP is superior, and you voted TWICE for the same Idiot In Chief as Rosie, Twice. Enough said, you’re discredited too. You, or Rosie, wouldn’t know reality if it hit you upside your noggen.
WHAT IN YOUR BACKGROUND ALLOWS YOU TO DIAGNOSE MENTAL ILLNESS? and usually one has to be aware of absolutes. and who set you up as the 'Discreditor' AND IS THIS AKIN TO THE TERMINATOR?
Lyle (#7) and Misha (#6) are snorting goofballs if they really believe all thier own neocon, braiwashed-by-Rush crap. Jeez, it’s 2008.
DO ALL PEOPLE WHO DISAGREE WITH YOU HAVE TO BE SELF MEDICATING ILLEGAL SUBSTANCES? QUITE THE CIVILIZED DEBATER ARE YOU, LESTER.
Comment by james d granata — April 13, 2008 @ 6:12 am
Lester- Spot ON…
Bitter and Angry in Rural Pennsylvania: Obama's Reality vs. Hillary's Fantasy
by astral66 [Subscribe]
Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 03:47:47 PM PDT
Maybe there aren't many Bubbas driving around in pickup trucks with the classic bumper sticker "God, Guns and Guts Made America Free" where Obama's detractors live, but here in rural Pennsylvania that line may as well replace "e pluribus unum" as the motto on the national currency.
astral66's diary :: ::
I live in western Pennsylvania, and I can tell you, people here are bitter and angry. Poverty is prevalent. People hunt squirrels and eat them, along with racoon stew. People also hunt deer here, not for sport, but so they can put meat in their freezer so they can feed their families. They cut wood in the forests and heat their homes with wood stoves because they can't afford to pay the gas bill. I know a guy who goes to old landfills to dig up old milk and beer bottles to sell on eBay. He uses the proceeds to buy clothes for his family at the Salvation Army (and to pay for his dial-up connection).
Racism and prejudice are ever-present here. A friend of mine is part-owner of bar in a small rural town south of where I live. I meet up with him there occasionally and watch as down-and-out people come in with their disability and welfare check money and drink it away. It's a pretty depressing place, but it does serve as the social center for a town that has seen its few industries shut down and the local people's jobs eliminated or shipped off elsewhere.
I hear the usual rants there, that it's all the fault of gays and minorities and immigrants (although those aren't the terms used, but rather the usual, virulent slurs). A black man walked in the last time I was there, and a guy near me at the bar muttered in a not-so-quiet way, "What's he think he's doing in here?" When I brought up the presidential race and Obama with another man at the bar, his response was, "there ain't no way America is ever going to vote for a black guy." Later on my bar-owner friend told me about his experience talking about Obama with another woman at the bar, and her angry response was that "it's because of half-breed n*****s like him that America is in such bad shape today."
Prejudice, racism and fear do run rampant in areas like this. People are poor. They are in bad health, overweight from a deep-fried diet, and toothless from the lack of dental care. They are unemployed. They are uneducated. They do cling to their hunting rifles and to their religious beliefs. For many, it is about all that they have. The towns around here are full of decaying, boarded up buildings. People live in rundown old trailers with abandoned cars in the front yard. I have seen people using an old car as a stable, with their goat tied to and living in it. I could drive you by a least three old houses that have Conderate flags in the windows.
So go ahead and discount Obama's talk of how bitter and angry that some of the people of rural Pennsylvania are. Call him elitist for taking the time to pass through areas such as this to listen to what the people have to say, and to then relate what he has heard to people in more prosperous parts of the country when he is asked about it. I have lived in San Francisco, and let me tell you, there is a marked difference between the general attitude there and the attitude here in the "rust belt". Go ahead and dismiss everything that Obama said as political posturing. Let Hillary and McCain "pick him apart" and parse his words. But please keep in mind that when Obama said:
"it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
that he is 100% accurate in his assessment.
I know, because I live here, my family and my friends' families have lived here for generations, and we see it every day, all around this region. There is a very fine line between poverty and prosperity here, where making above $20,000 a year puts you in the realm of the "haves", but also knowing that you're one contract termination away from joining the ranks of the "have-nots".
I come from a family of dairy farmers. I know what it's like to spend up to 12-16 hours a day sitting on a tractor for three dollars an hour, which I did through high school and every summer until I was fortunate enough to head off to college. Many of my friends were also fortunate and went to school, and then relocated to other parts of the country. Some of us were able to come back under better circumstances, but the large majority of people here are not as fortunate.
Thirty years worth of the right wing dismantling our public education system has taken its toll. Thirty years worth of mismanagement of the economy, of shutting down factories and shipping jobs out of the country, of subsidizing corporate farms and taxing family farms out of business, has taken its toll.
Yes, people are angry, and bitter, but Obama never said that they aren't resilient, opitmistic or hard-working. Those are Hillary and McCain's twisted words, and for them to stand up and suggest that rural Pennsylvanians aren't fed up with the way things are, only reveals how out of touch they really are with at least this part of the country.
Of course, all McCain has to do is suggest to poor rural folk that the party of gun-control, gay marriage, and NAFTA is going to take away what little they have left, and rural conservatives will vote for him, just as they did for Reagan, Bush I and Bush II. As for Hillary, the more she "takes apart" Obama's message, the more she does the GOP's work for free. If Hillary can't see that the people of rural Pennsylvania are bitter, and angry, and mad as hell about the way things are, then she needs to step down from that one hundred million dollar platform of hers and take a real look around.
In western Pennsylvania I hear two things: the "God, Guns and Guts" crowd see John McCain as the heir-apparent to the mantle of rural conservative values; and the people who hope for some kind of change see Barack Obama as the person who understands the situation that we are in, and maybe is the one who can lead us in a new direction. What I don't hear is anyone talking about whatever and whomever it is that Hillary claims to stand for.
In the end, I think this is all a "lost in translation" much ado about nothing episode.
Going back to Obama's statement, and keeping in mind that he was speaking to a specific group of supporters in San Francsico, and keeping in mind that he was discussing a variety of "talking points" in the previous paragraph, I think that it is the absence of the word "issue" in this particular portion of his response to one of the attendee's questions that is lost in translation from the actual event to the transcript spun in the media.
So let's break it down:
"'Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What's the concrete thing?' What they wanna hear is — so, we'll give you talking points about what we're proposing — close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama's gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we're gonna provide health care for every American. So we'll go down a series of talking points.
Obama is offering: - closing tax loopholes - roll back taxes for the top 1 percent - tax breaks to the middle class - health care for every American
But:
"But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there's not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them."
"So it's not surprising then that they get bitter" and "As a way to explain their frustrations…they cling to" issues that focus on: - guns - religion - antipathy to people who aren't like them - anti-immigrant sentiment - anti-trade sentiment
It's the usual laundry list of GOP hot-button talking points.
What Obama was doing was contrasting his talking points, with the tradtional GOP talking points that he has to contend with if he is going to break through and reach these tradtional blue-collar voters.
I can't imagine that anyone who was in the room with Obama misunderstood this. It's only when the transcript is removed from the context in which the information was delivered that the MSM begins to spin it into something that it's not.
Comment by Bink1 — April 13, 2008 @ 9:40 am
The other day Bill Kristol said Hillary would end it in May. Maybe he's right. He'd have insider information; but the truth is, these 118 people will choose your next president, and everything else is irrelevant theater. Source: a report Project Censored removed from their website. See here and here.
Comment by Uranus — April 13, 2008 @ 10:09 am
Hillary withdraws and this Independent turned Democrat living in PA will vote for John McCain, a Republican for the first time ever!
Obama is a d*mn phoney and by the time you you'll find out, boy will it be too late.
Comment by skyblu — April 13, 2008 @ 3:28 pm
Hey you 'workin' people', what was Obama doing on billionare row in California this weekend? Raking in $40 million. If you think he's gonna represent you, you've another thing a comin'. I say Senator Hillary Clinton for President because she is best for the USA… Gore and Carter; Donna Brazil….Kerry…and the rest who are more loyal to partisan partics than the USA, are a shameful lot.
Comment by skyblu — April 13, 2008 @ 3:32 pm
Lester and James: How do you know who people voted for? Omniscient? Psychotic? It's hard to tell.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — April 14, 2008 @ 10:00 am
Brent,
Sorry, but you are absolutely wrong! The Clintonistas have a huge sense of entitlement (see Gov. Bill Richardson's explanation of why he did't endorse HRC), and they have too high a financial stake in the game to leave the table before the convention.
They stand to make tons of money if she gets to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Note, Penn got demoted for following up on the Columbia deal set-up by Bill. In the senate HRC backed trade pacts with Jordan, Chile, Singapore, Australia, Morrocco, and Oman. These same trade agreements were opposed by labor, farming, and environmental groups. But, strange as it seems, the voters in Pa. don't know this?
HRC's strength is in the hordes of disappointed,post-menepausal white women who have a deep emotional investment in her success; they see mirrored in her mis-guided effort many of their own personal failures.
HRC's support — she and Bill known this and play to it — comes from areas covered by a suffocating blanket-racism where gun-toting, Bible-thumpers prevail; places where populations are mostly in ill-health; where towns have been drained of jobs and decent schools. These people don't mind a little pain, as long as they can be assured that "the nigger's pain is greater than their own."
Such are the HRC voters. They will pull the lever for her again, and again; and she will sell them out again, and again.
HRC is not going to give up the ghost; and the Clintons' reputation won't be rehabilitated. They will keep on pushing because they know on which side their financial bread is buttered. They will keep selling out Democratic voters who get suckered in by them…
Blink1, thank you for that brilliant description of what has happened to small town USA. It is understandable that people who can get away run as fast as they can.
Comment by barbara day — April 14, 2008 @ 12:15 pm
To those of you who think what Obama said is untrue, listen to what a couple of folks form PA thought about it:
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/04/13/foxnews-rural-pennsylvanians-find-little-to-argue-with-barack-obama/
Sometimes you have to quit listening to Rush and Insanity and think for yourselves.
Comment by Mike Coleman — April 14, 2008 @ 12:44 pm
I really think it is funny for Hillary (worth $109 million) and McCain ( worth over $100 million) calling Obama an elitist when he just finished paying off his student loans. The ironic twist is too much to take and the trolls (Igor, Misha, Diane b, etc.) lapped up every untruth.
Comment by Mike Coleman — April 14, 2008 @ 12:47 pm
how did abama get that million dollar home before he payed-off his student loans?
Comment by j — April 14, 2008 @ 12:55 pm
Mike, Obama is elitist no matter how much anyone else worth. Since logic isn't your strong suite, give it some though and maybe it will sink in. Although by now he's made a few bucks, his elitism doesn't come from his earnings. It comes from never having done any real work after receiving an exclusive education, and this feeling that he gets that he is actually qualified to tell anyone how to run their lives when he is a total zero.
Comment by Igor R. — April 14, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
Brent: Now I know why a certain Hillary-worshiping person of my acquaintance doesn't include your post content in her mass e-mailings any more. The truth hurts.
Colin: Hillary's negatives shot up dramatically when she and her surrogates started pushing the Wright hoo-ha to the press:
Comment by Phoenix Woman — April 14, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
phoenix woman–
polls are irrelevant, no matter who takes them.
the wright issue prolonged hillary's campaign. it was the 1st true negative issue against BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA that the press was willing to cover. the wright issue has kept this DEM primary alive and will be the down-fall of the marxist BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA.
Comment by j — April 14, 2008 @ 3:49 pm
Igor;
Do you think that the past few years of W, who may think was not an elitist was a good thing. Wages under the non-elitist has declined every year of his presidency. Gas prices have risen every year under this non-elitist presidency. War has been persistent under this non-elitist presidency and America has tortured under this non-elitist presidency. I'll tell you what, I'll that an elitist that can think over a non-thinking, war mongering non-elitist any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Comment by Mike Coleman — April 14, 2008 @ 3:53 pm
Mike, do you know how many millions of people have died under George Bush from what some would cynically call "natural causes"? It's a real tragedy, Mike, real tragedy.
Comment by Igor R. — April 14, 2008 @ 6:58 pm
Igor;
Do you think that invading a country that did nothing to us is a good thing when it cause the death and suffering of millions of people on both sides? If you do, you are as twisted as George W. Bush.
Comment by Mike Coleman — April 15, 2008 @ 12:33 pm
Mike, read my answer about invading Iraq on another thread.
Comment by Igor R. — April 15, 2008 @ 2:17 pm