May 16, 2008
Obama Goes for a Michigan and Florida-Proof Majority (Dick Morris)
For months, everyone who follows the Democratic presidential nominating contest has focused on 2,025 delegates, the total needed to win the nomination if you do not count the delegates from Florida or Michigan.
Now, in her West Virginia victory speech, Hillary is floating an alternative number — 2,209 — the number of votes to secure a majority with both of these states fully counted. But there is a third number for which Obama must now strive — 2,075 — the number of delegates he needs to win to assure that even if Florida and Michigan were fully counted, he would still have a majority at the convention.
Hillary won Florida by 17 points. With about 220 delegates, that would give her 37 more delegates than Obama would get were the Sunshine State to be seated at the convention. She won Michigan against an uncommitted slate (now presumably for Obama) by 10 points. With about 130 delegates, that would give her an extra 13-vote margin over Obama.
Combined, the two states would give Hillary 50 more delegates than Obama would get from them. But if Obama wins a majority of the convention plus 50, he would win even if the two states are fully seated. So, when Obama gets to 2,075, it will be all over.
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Since March 1 the Clinton camp has hoped that being the strongest candidate at the end, the one seen as the most electable would swing the super delegates her way. Everyone knew then that was the only way for her to win once the caucus states had all lined up for Obama.
Since March 1 Clinton has won 6 out of 9 primaries, with a 350,000 popular vote margin over Obama. She picked up 19 more delegates and has moved the number of delegates elected in primary elections ("the will over the voters") to 1268 Clinton, 1271 Obama.
She accomplished all of that while being out spent in every state (including West Virginia) some times by as much as a 5 to 1 margin. The net effect of all of those efforts have been nil. She has continued to be attacked by the pundents and talking heads and never allowed any momentum.
Instead, we have seen the talking head class accuse every Clinton support of being a racist and driving a bigger wedge between Obama and the potential of Clinton supports moving towards unity when this is over.
John McCain had to be thrilled watching Matthews and Oberrman on Tuesday night with the distain they show towards Clinton and Clinton voters.
Comment by Chuck R — May 16, 2008 @ 11:21 am
Hillary will lose this race or destroy the current Democratic party. She most likely will have lost some influence inside the party, but that will change. She will never be President. Too many Americans find her revolting. Including many women. That's a story you won't see in the national media.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — May 16, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
Ok, ok Dick, she will loose for sure, for sure, she is not coming back, ok, relax now.
Comment by Igor R. — May 16, 2008 @ 12:32 pm
She will never be President. Too many Americans find her revolting. Including many women.
she is a sociopath.
Comment by james d granata — May 16, 2008 @ 7:17 pm
I like Hillary Clinton, and saw her last night and let me tell you folks, this gal has lots of supporters. I would not call her out quite yet.
No, I wouldn't.
Comment by Diane B — May 16, 2008 @ 11:13 pm
Floats? Floats? Just what does that word mean, Dick? Floats? Barack Obama strategizes how to only count votes after they cannot hurt his chances for nominations and you use the word floats.
This is exactly the kind of golden gloves treatment Barack Obama has gotten for the past two months.
Barack Obama cheated in the caucus states and you pundits better not wait too long to acknowledge it because you will look pretty stupid for turning the other way while the caucus fix was going down.
http://www.hillary-wins.com
Comment by Alessandro Machi — May 17, 2008 @ 12:26 am
Diane, Dick just need a little reassurance. He is VERY worried about Hillary being in charge of the FBI.
Comment by Igor R. — May 17, 2008 @ 1:31 am
How many times must the loser move the goalpost to have her supporters realize it is just another ploy to make her look credible in the long road to defeat?
This gets sadder everyday..Not even one batch of numbers gets the attention of her loyalists–they proceed with the new/old BS.
Comment by Docb — May 17, 2008 @ 10:51 am
Between Hillary and Obama I prefer Hillary. Not because I trust her, I don't, but because you know her allegiance is to herself whereas Obama has allegiance to who ever is standing in front of him that he perceives is important. Watch him. Wright, Avery, his wife. He always defers to perceived power. Obama has a great need to be "lead" and no confidence in himself. These are not indicators of someone who can lead.
Comment by OldSarg — May 17, 2008 @ 10:12 pm
It is the fact Mr. Dick Morris you hate Sen. Hillary, your articles which did expose your mind and every people have the same feeling that, you are dishonest person and is not base on the fact to telling people the true, you are using your way to against and damage Hillary. Are you the real man?.
Comment by Deann — May 18, 2008 @ 9:39 am
Her latest ploy to confuse and anger the voter–given to her rabid bloggers Friday:
Clinton is maning an all out effort to confuse the low knowledge voter about obama…and is getting little coverage for her outrageous claims from MSM or Cable so she has turned to the bloggers with this on Friday…
"But by confusing the facts and casting doubt on his legitimacy, she can encourage resentment among her supporters that will persist even if she drops out after June 4 and endorses Obama. If they feel that she was pushed out illegitimately, at least some of her supporters may decide to sit it out or vote for McCain in hopes of giving her another chance in 2012.
In addition to creating questions about Obama's legitimacy as the nominee, she played the gender card yet again last night. She said that she "deeply regrets the vitriol and the mean-spiritedness and the terrible insults and rhetoric that has been thrown around at you for supporting me, at women in general, at many of those who support my campaign because of who they are and their stand based on principle." This is not the first time she has claimed that she is being treated differently because of her gender, and it appears to encourage women who feel she has been mistreated because she is a woman to keep feeling that way.
This, like the talking points designed to cloud Obama's legitimacy in terms of the math, could be part of a strategy to fan the flames of resentment among her supporters, particularly women. Yes, she may bow out gracefully after the primaries are over, but she wants to make sure her supporters are as disappointed and even angry when she does. She appears to want them to feel that she was wronged, making it harder for them to turn around and support Obama. She'll bow out eventually and give a speech that will probably tug at people's heartstrings and make them wistful, with some people perhaps hoping that she gets another chance in 4 years."
Comment by Docb — May 18, 2008 @ 11:45 am
The fact is simple. She continues to bring race to the forefront. Obama has done well with white support and until only recently we have seen that slipping with her comments that he can't win the white hard-working American vote, hitherto, a false ascertain.
Her attempts at party unity are coming too late. She could well have made an exceptional nominee until she hatcheted her opponent and effectively her opponents supporters.
She doesn't want to count the available popular vote in caucus states and she wants to count a state where Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in keeping with party rules.
This will not bode well for Superdelegates who are even more keenly aware of these ill-meaning tactics.
Comment by geo — May 18, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
It's easy to confuse the class of voters she attracts in large numbers. If you read Senator Webb's book about that whole Applacian (sp?) area–Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America– he points to just how lowly-educated and disenchanted this sect of our population has and continues to be. He also points to an interesting point in the actual similarities between this sect and african americans. A closing paragraph in the book puts forth the notion that should the 2 groups come together at the table and find common ground, both would rise to unprecendented heights. (paraphrased) Interesting read and insightful. More importantly, it's first hand understanding of the issue.
It's a shame she has to resort to such tactics. But, she wants to win come hell or high water. Let her rave that men (and women) shall know her mad. Losing something one has felt entitled to is truly maddening. So let her rave on…it's only natural.
Comment by Chelsea H. — May 22, 2008 @ 3:19 pm
The Clintons continue to move the bar. The voters can only develop more distrust as this process continues. A new explanation each day. Sometimes each new message contradicts the previous message. One can only conclude that the Clintons think that we are all ignorant and uninformed.
WHAT ARROGANCE! THE PUBLIC WO'T BUY IT.
Comment by Blaksmith — May 23, 2008 @ 10:16 am