July 24, 2008
For McCain, Bleak Numbers Belie Silver Lining (A.B. Stoddard)
The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has John McCain still holding just six points behind Barack Obama, but the poll is also full of bleak numbers for the self-described "underdog."
A startling 74 percent of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, which makes McCain's job of winning his party a third White House term a steep uphill climb. President Bush's approval ratings are still in the toilet, and a 55-40 margin shows voters want a candidate who will make change, even if he is inexperienced. To boot, while 44 percent of Obama supporters say they are excited about him, only 14 percent of McCain voters say the same.
However, the poll confirms that the election is so far a referendum on Obama, with 51 percent of respondents focused on Obama while only 27 percent are focused on McCain. With campaign manager Steve Schmidt's new message focus, this represents an opening for McCain. Schmidt's new storyline for McCain, as The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, is that Obama is the risky choice while McCain has taken courageous and controversial stands to work across the aisle, putting country before party.
The silver lining for McCain comes in that very question in this poll: Fifty-five percent of those queried said Obama is the riskier choice, compared to 35 for McCain. Twenty points! He better run with it.
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WILL THE BERLIN SWOON CREATE ANY BACKLASH AT HOME FOR OBAMA? Ask A.B. returns Tuesday, July 29. Please join my weekly video Q & A by sending your questions and comments to askab@thehill.com. Thank you.
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If McCain simplifies the race to an energy quest he will win hands down. He should point out that the Democrats want to raise the federal gas tax to 28 cents a gallon from it's current 18 cents. He should take an energy tour and conduct energy summits with the captain's of the energy industries. He should follow through on his plan to visit oil rigs and reduce the energy crisis to a nuts and bolt event.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — July 24, 2008 @ 12:11 pm
McCain has only one option: and it's an ugly one. He is to pray there exists enough latent racism in enough Americans that he can play to their worst tendencies and scare them away from voting for an African-American.
This is disgusting, but it's an option that Karl Rove will encourage, and the endlessly ambitious John McCain will hungrily relish and embrace.
Remember, this is a guy who voted AGAINST the Martin Luther King holiday in the 1980's.
Comment by PR — July 24, 2008 @ 1:16 pm
"a 55-40 margin shows voters want a candidate who will make change, even if he is inexperienced"
I'm not so sure I want inexperienced change…
Comment by Henry — July 24, 2008 @ 1:45 pm
I agreed with RR on energy, but McCain should expand the battlefield to security issue. The only thing I want my Government to do is to focus on our national security while I work 10-12 hours/day to build an American dream, i.e. I'll take care of my family's medical insurance, provide income, etc. It's not even fair to discuss who'd be stronger on national security issues, and thus McCain has excellent chance to dispose of BHO.
Comment by Misha — July 24, 2008 @ 2:04 pm
Grampy McSame could indeed help himself a lot if he could get the surge timelines right, and figure out who the hell these shiites and sunnis are.
Comment by Lester — July 24, 2008 @ 2:51 pm
AB
Why focus on the WSJ poll? That's like the MSNBC crew that will focus on the one poll that backs their opinion and forgets to mention others.
Why not focus on the recent CO and OH polls that show McCain ahead or the recent Quinnipac MN poll that shows him picking up over 10 points.
Maybe the polls are useless in July anyway.
Comment by Jay from Texas — July 24, 2008 @ 6:51 pm
I salute McCain's long service to our country, but it's time for him to retire.
We don't need a Hoover right now.
Comment by smilinjack — July 24, 2008 @ 7:01 pm
Let's put smilingjack at abu Ghraib. He can salute from there every day.
Comment by Misha — July 24, 2008 @ 8:47 pm
We don't need a Hoover right now.
I agree
The exact reason to vote for McCain.
Obama's policies are right in line with Hoover. From trade to foreign policy.
Comment by Jay from Texas — July 24, 2008 @ 10:27 pm