August 18, 2008
Thoughts About the VP Selections (John Feehery)
So, according to the latest news, the Obama campaign is going to pick one of three possible candidates to be his running mate, sometime later this week. He was probably waiting for Michael Phelps to quit winning gold medals so his pick could get some news coverage.
John McCain will probably follow with his own pick the week after, smack in the middle of the Democratic convention. Not great timing, but an interesting piece of cross-programming nonetheless.
I think Obama will pick Joe Biden and McCain will then pick either Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty.
Obama first floated the name of Tim Kaine as a possible running mate, but Kaine’s inexperience and pro-life position made him less attractive the more Democratic activists thought about it. Evan Bayh was the next victim of torture by trial balloon, but his early support for the Iraq war (he thought he was going to run for president and he was trying to be prudent) garnered about a million opponents who organized themselves on Facebook and told Obama, “Hell no.”
That leaves Biden, who gives Obama a couple of things that he needs. Long experience in the Senate (Biden has been there since the Civil War) is one attribute. Some understanding of foreign policy is another place where Obama needs help, and Biden can give it. And Biden is Irish Catholic, and that won’t hurt with a key voting bloc.
But Biden is not the perfect candidate. He has diarrhea of the mouth. He won’t stop talking, ever. He is condescending. He is uncontrollable. He is undisciplined. And he thinks that he is a lot smarter than Sen. Obama. Finally, he represents Delaware, which is about as important as Wyoming electorally.
The media wanted Obama to pick Hillary Clinton. But with Hillary Clinton, you get Bill Clinton, and with Bill Clinton, you get a series of soap operas that neither Obama nor the American people have much time for at the moment. So my guess is that Obama goes a different direction than Hillary.
For McCain, Obama’s selection of Biden sets up some intriguing opportunities. Two senators rarely win presidential election on the same ticket. That would seem to suggest that McCain would go a different route. There was some speculation that McCain might go with a Joe Lieberman or a Tom Ridge. I just think that the abortion issue is too important to too many Republicans for McCain to take that chance. That disqualifies Rudy Giuliani.
Rob Portman and Eric Cantor are two good possibilities, although I think Portman might be seen as too close to the Bush family and Cantor might be seen as being too green politically (although he has more real political experience than Obama).
McCain might be tempted to go with a female running mate. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Carly Fiorina and Meg Wittman have all been mentioned as possibilities, although I don’t see any them having a realistic change.
Three governors (or ex-governors) remain. Charlie Crist from Florida, Romney and Pawlenty.
I doubt he will pick Crist, although the Florida governor endorsed McCain at precisely the right time. But Crist has a brewing financial crisis in Florida he needs to attend to.
Romney gives McCain critical help on the economic front, is a good campaigner, and has an active network of supporters across the county. But his religion could be a drag, especially with evangelical voters. A group of evangelicals have already said that they will not support a ticket that includes a Mormon.
That leaves Pawlenty, who may or may not be ready for prime time. His life story is inspiring but largely unknown. The question is simple about the Minnesota governor. Can he deliver the Midwest for McCain? If he can, he might be worth the risk. If not, what’s the point?
Selecting a VP is not critical to winning an election. Dan Quayle proved that fact. But it makes for interesting discussion around the water cooler, especially here in D.C. as August slips away.
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When you put two quotable intelligentsia like these two on the same ticket who knows what quotes lie ahead. Here's Biden, who has been referred to as the dumbest man in the U.S. Senate, at his best on Obama, ""I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," Biden said. "I mean, that's a storybook, man." Then there's Barack at his best, "So it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." At least both of them have something in common. They tend to dismiss other people or groups of people with elitist views.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — August 19, 2008 @ 8:11 am
* * * McCain-Romney * * *
Comment by JFK-HRC — August 19, 2008 @ 9:28 am
Doom and gloom seem to dominate your prose there John. There's nothing more crazed than reading neocon predictions and opinions of looming doom and who the "bad guys" are expected to be. For God's sake Cheney is your guru, and that speaks volumes.
Comment by Mattie May — August 19, 2008 @ 10:10 am
I agree that Obama will probably pick Biden, who has far more experience than Obama or Kaine. If I were an Obama supporter, I would say Biden is a good choice.
As for McCain, he should pick Romney; who would be the only person with actual governing experience in the pack.
Comment by John Simmons — August 19, 2008 @ 10:14 am
You can bet that if Obama loses because a white woman drug her feet and did not wholey support the candidate or the party -She ,along with her husband, will be toast on Nov 5 and there will be no redeemption from this ,unlike the 2+years after the 'pardons'!
Comment by Docb — August 19, 2008 @ 11:21 am
Call it their sense of arrogance and entitlement, but it amuses me to see that some of the Hillcrazies actually believe that if Obama were to lose:
A. Clintons would gain and not get blamed for his loss.
B. That the voters, especially African Americans would simply forgive, forget and simply fall in line in 2012. Or worse, expect Obama to bring them in line..LOL!!!
While they go on undermining Obama's candidacy, they are also destroying any chance their heroine has in a political future.
The only way to their redemption is to stop pouting, scheming and help elect Obama and hope that she has some political capital left to run in 2016.
Comment by Theard — August 19, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
So what happens if Obama chooses Hagel? I doubt Biden will be picked, he could be Def sec or Sec of state…
McCain considering Joe?
Comment by Theard — August 19, 2008 @ 3:47 pm
Obama/Biden is the best sounding combination when compared to Osama bin Laden. Can't do better than that given today's pool of applicants…
Comment by Misha — August 20, 2008 @ 9:56 am
I'm getting redundant, but can anybody explain why he wouldn't get the most votes with Hillary? You can talk all you want about who he or Michelle is comfortable with, but he is in trouble and she'll get him the votes he needs.
Comment by Igor R. — August 20, 2008 @ 1:26 pm
Igor–I am going to assume that you are not being coy or facetious.
allow me to list a few reasons:
HRC has too many negs, she brings out the GOP crazies like no other.
What do u do with Bill Clinton? Do you want a former prez second guessing you?
Too much drama, the press would go nuts…is Bill happy? How r they getting along?..Is there a catfight in the WH between HRC and Michelle?
Her supposed 18 million voters, you know the ones who should be paying off her 25 mill debt, are mostly in the Obama camp.
She doesn't fit the Change mantra. Clintons are the past while he is the future.
She is $25 mill in the red.
Did I say drama?
He would need a food taster.
Comment by Theard — August 20, 2008 @ 5:54 pm
Igor–I am going to assume that you are not being coy or facetious.
allow me to list a few reasons:
HRC has too many negs, she brings out the GOP crazies like no other.
What do u do with Bill Clinton? Do you want a former prez second guessing you?
Too much drama, the press would go nuts…is Bill happy? How r they getting along?..Is there a catfight in the WH between HRC and Michelle?
Her supposed 18 million voters, you know the ones who should be paying off her 25 mill debt, are mostly in the Obama camp.
She doesn't fit the Change mantra. Clintons are the past while he is the future.
She is $25 mill in the red.
He would need a food taster.
Comment by Theard — August 20, 2008 @ 5:55 pm