October 6, 2008
Obama's Time: The Cycles of American History (Lanny Davis)
At the end of the vice presidential debate Thursday night, most objective pundits declared that Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) did better on substance but Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) was effective on style, approaching her poised performance in her convention speech.
Every objective national poll showed that more people thought Mr. Biden had “won” — whatever that means. I think that means he seemed more vice presidential. Can there be any doubt about that?
In fact, the post-debate polling data confirmed that Mr. Biden had moved more persuadable voters than Mrs. Palin. The national Gallup Daily Tracking poll had the Obama-Biden ticket at plus-5 percent before the debate to plus-8 percent as of Saturday night.
The simple answer, supported by most polls, is that Mr. Biden's articulation of his and Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Ill.) center-left positions on the major domestic and foreign policy issues has more support among voters than Mrs. Palin's accurate depiction of her and Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) conservative positions.
One way to understand why the polling data are showing these results is to look back in U.S. history to track the swings between liberal and conservative national governments to see the reasons for and duration of those cycles.
In a 1949 essay, famous historian Arthur Schlesinger Sr. — father of the even more famous historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. — identified 11 such swings in American history (as of 1949). These were what his son described in his 1986 book, The Cycles of American History, as “periods of concern for the rights of the few and periods of concern for the wrongs of the many.”
The senior Mr. Schlesinger pointed out from George Washington's presidency in 1788 through Harry Truman's in 1947 that the objective in six of the periods was to increase democracy, and in five, to contain it. The average duration of the liberal-conservative cycle, at least up to 1949, was about 16 years.
For example, in the first four decades of the 20th century the senior Mr. Schlesinger said, there were three such cycles: the Progressive Era, 1901-1919; the Republican conservative restoration, 1919-1931; and the New Deal Era of strong, progressive government under Franklin D. Roosevelt and Truman, 1931-1949 (which lasted through 1952, when the next cycle of center-right conservatism under Eisenhower set in).
The pattern has continued in the last half of the 20th century. But as communications and technology accelerated the flow of information — especially in the 1990s, with the revolutionary impact of the Internet and 24/7 cable TV news — the pace of change accelerated and the cycles shortened.
After the essentially status-quo quiet of the 1950s came the more government-activist center-left New Frontier of John F. Kennedy and the Great Society of Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s. Then came the intense Nixonian conservative reaction to Vietnam, urban riots and the counterculture — a right-wing backlash so severe that it triggered a conservative cycle that lasted from 1968 to 1992, from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan to George H.W. Bush (including Jimmy Carter, a center-right Democrat elected in the aftermath of Watergate by the narrowest of margins, and Gerald Ford).
In 1992 came Bill Clinton's center-left restoration, which, but for a few hundred votes in Florida and one more vote on the Supreme Court, could have lasted at least 16 years with two terms by Al Gore.
But a true fiscal and social conservative president, George W. Bush, won about half the country in 2000 and a little more than half in 2004. (Preceding Mr. Bush was the historical conservative congressional revolution instigated in 1994 by House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The pendulum swung dramatically back 12 years later in 2006, when the Democrats took over both houses of Congress.)
These historic patterns are not coincidental, according to both Schlesingers. They reflect the ebb and flow of an American political culture and representative democracy system that, to its credit, mirrors changes in public mood, if not immediately then reasonably soon after they have begun.
These political swings are not so hard to understand. Look no further than basic human nature. Problems accumulate, triggering a desire for change to solve those problems. But then people get tired of being hassled by government, and a period of “leave me alone” conservatism sets in. Then problems accumulate again. And once again, the pendulum wants government to take the lead in solving problems and controlling the excesses of the private marketplace. And so on.
So here we are in 2008. We should know the pattern by now and what to expect.
As Mr. Biden said during Thursday's debate, "past is prologue." Our problems, domestic and foreign, have accumulated (that's certainly an understatement) under conservative presidential and congressional rule over most of the last eight years.
And the pendulum has swung.
People are fed up. They want (you guessed it) change. And Mr. Obama brilliantly saw this and seized this ground before anyone else in either party and made it his own more effectively than anyone else.
Shock, shock: Issues matter, and most of the American people are now center-left on most economic and foreign policy issues, ready for change and increasingly supporting the Obama-Biden ticket, which is closest to their views on the issues and the role of government at this point in history.
The pundits can relax. No need for more punditry over the next two presidential debates. The answers are in the history books. It's over.
The Democratic Obama-Biden ticket will win by a solid margin on Nov. 4, reflecting this inevitable rhythm in American politics going back to George Washington.
One caveat: The Obama–Biden ticket will win by a solid but not overwhelming margin unless Mr. McCain goes personally negative against Mr. Obama, as weekend press reports indicate. If he does, the Obama-Biden ticket will win by a landslide of historic margins.
Lanny Davis is a Washington lawyer and a political analyst for Fox News. From 1996 to 1998, he served as special counsel to President Clinton. From 2005 to 2006, he served on President Bush's five-member Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board.
He is the author of Scandal: How 'Gotcha' Politics Is Destroying America. This article appeared in The Washington Times on Monday, Oct. 6, 2008.
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Let's just cancel both debates, declare Osama President-elect and get Bush family out of the White House by Thanksgiving. Also, let's record the names and addresses of all voters so they could be rounded up, and place into re-education camps in Alaska and North Dakota. Given Barack's young age, we might as well remove restriction on two Presidential terms and let him serve his country until he's at least 82, like Fidel Castro. Sounds stupid? That's how you sound as well, Lanny. Stupid and irrelevant.
Comment by Misha — October 6, 2008 @ 12:22 am
"Jimmy Carter, a center-right Democrat"
Lanny, you can stop working now and you'll have enough money to last until your last day. How can you write such nonsense? How much do you get paid to kiss the butt of someone who rightly or wrongly has stolen nomination from your dear friends? Do words like "loyalty" and/or "respect" mean anything to you?
Comment by Misha — October 6, 2008 @ 12:50 am
I'm no fan of Lanny Davis. In fact, I think he's a worm who's always been for Hillary Clinton. After the last 8 years it would be hard to image any republican winning the office of the presidency. In fact the Senate will gain more democratic seats. In time, after the democratic Congress does lousy, they will be removed also. Let's hope the country can come together in November. We need mega moves in the right direction.
Comment by Joyce — October 6, 2008 @ 3:41 am
This proves that the media has become an arm of the Obama campaign. This is a carefully orchestrated move, where Obama has been declared the winner this morning on all the major channels and news outlets. The obvious intent is to get people not to vote against him. Let's hope it backfires and he loses in a landslide.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — October 6, 2008 @ 7:51 am
By the way, Obama does not represent change. Obama is more big government, more government takeover of the business sector, and the big one, illegal aliens will now all become citizens, which will add tremendously to the federal deficit. If Barack is elected the dollar will be worth 40 cents to the euro three years from now, and the American public will wonder what happened.
Comment by Robert Rosencrans — October 6, 2008 @ 8:34 am
RR;
It was your party that expanded government. After 9/11, Bush instituted the Patriot Act, Created the Dept. of Homeland Security, gave Big Pharma teh Medicad act of 2003 and spent untold trillions of dollars on teh war of terror. There is nothing Obama has done or will do that Bush hasn't doen more of. Face it, all that Liberal crap that you folks have fed teh masses over the year is now done and Change is coming. Your party did it to yourselves and Obama will become the new POTUS come 11/04.
Comment by Mike Coleman — October 6, 2008 @ 11:33 am
I Obama is elected, this will be the last free election. No more cycles. The fairness doctrine will shut down free press, the ACORN and volunteer core goons will shut down anti-Obama campaigning, and we'll have glorious Soc.ialsim until the end of times. No more cycles.
Comment by Igor R. — October 6, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
Well Lanny your at it again. Being a lawyer I would expect nothing less.You are obviously looking for a position in the Obama Regime. Let,s see they love bullshit! Yea that,s it you can be Minister of Bullshit.
Comment by Teerry Gee — October 6, 2008 @ 12:22 pm
Fearmongering will not work, neither will Ayers, Wright, and Rezko. We are waiting for the next stunt, McCain flips ticket, its now Palin-McCain!
McCain advisor just acknowledged that he plans large custs for medicare/medicaid..GOOD BYE FLA!!
The Caribou Barbie is sinking the GOP ship. I hope she runs in 2012…lol
Comment by Theard — October 6, 2008 @ 12:27 pm
The economy is more likely to stabilize quicker if Obama gets elected. He's respected all around the world and is considered brilliant, and respectful of other countries' rights. If McCain were to be elected, we'd be a banana republic in no time; we're on our way there now. We need to get back to a strong economy [remember Clinton; we had a surplus during his presidency no matter what anybody thinks about him]. We need those times again. Elect Obama/Biden.
Comment by Joyce — October 6, 2008 @ 2:43 pm
useful obama idiots…don't you get that obama and his rascist wife think that YOU are the problem?
do you really think there is a place in obama's america for white christians???
the answer is no. you're all just useful idiots for obama. you know, the kind that lenin spoke of…
Comment by realitycheck — October 6, 2008 @ 3:18 pm
"fearmongering" won't work cause you're all brainwashed!!!
Comment by inconspicuous tyrant — October 6, 2008 @ 3:19 pm
Joyce, you think that to stabilize the economy we need someone who is respected around the world and is considered brilliant. You actually think that these two characteristics matter in a significant way to solving a problem of about 60 trillion dollars in flawed Credit Default Swaps. I rest my case.
Comment by Igor R. — October 6, 2008 @ 7:12 pm
14. I admit I'M in the tank of Obama, and damn proud of it.
Comment by Joyce — October 6, 2008 @ 7:55 pm
Joyce, Obama is not respected around the world. He's allied himself with the worlds muzzie terrorists just waiting for an opening that will allow them into our country to wreck havoc and destruction against us. If Obama's elected, he'll just put out the welcome mat and let them in the front door.
Comment by Anne — October 6, 2008 @ 10:02 pm
Joyce, Obama is the lying face of pure evil, and you're proud to be for him. Think Joyce, don't just feel.
Comment by Igor R. — October 7, 2008 @ 12:21 am
16. Anne, you've been listening to republican fear mongering. Muslems are already here, and in the U.K., etc. thanks to our governments.
There are good and bad muslems just as there are good and bad christians [of which Obama is one[good]]. I am a product of 12 years all girl catholic schools when education was real education, and I'm voting for Obama. He is indeed respected by Europeans, especially the younger ones. Obama is bi-racial. He connects with many. My husband is Jewish, and he is also for Obama. We need change for a chance for our kids and grandkids. Nobody could do the damage that Bush and Cheney have done to us, nobody.
Independent for Obama/Biden '08
Comment by Joyce — October 7, 2008 @ 2:19 am
If Obama wins, and it looks like he may, it won't because of his stellar qualifications. He has none. It will be because of the systematic indoctrination by the mass media, by school teachers, and by groups like ACORN and their fraudulent activities. He'll be a change all right; a change for the worse.
Comment by Candide — October 7, 2008 @ 8:46 am
Joyce it sounds like you've lived a sheltered life. It's time to open your eyes and see that the younger Europeans who side with Obama are mostly radicals that hate what America stands for. Tell me how Obama is a good Christian while attending Rev Wrights church, only denouncing Wright after a sermom splewing the hate of this church is brought to life. Then tell me how Obama's wife who is now pround to be and American only after her husband became the dem nominee for president. These are the couple you want representing our country? Plllllllllllease!
Comment by Anne — October 7, 2008 @ 8:54 am
To all of you Obama haters, please enlighten us with what has McCain accomphished over the last 26 years in congress that benefited the American people? So far I've heard that he is a maverick but wasn't Maverick a gambler with questionable motives? Wasn't Maverick a man that when times got tough, he would hightail it out of town so the local boys wouldn't kill him. Tell me what this "maverick" has done that he deserved to be POTUS.
Comment by Mike Coleman — October 7, 2008 @ 11:06 am
Anne;
I feel that Obama will be a better representative of America than MCCain/Palin could ever be. McCain is a hothead who ius allways ready to fight when words will work. He is Mr. Wilson when the the world needs Mr. Rogers. The last time Bush was elected, the world asked how could America be so dumb? Well this time we will be smart about who we elect to lead this nation and it won't be Mccain.
Comment by Mike Coleman — October 7, 2008 @ 11:09 am
coleman-
so, we should listen to the world, rampant w/ anti-american fervor, when choosing our next president?
FYI: the thugs of this world WANT us to elect mr rogers too. they'd love it.
they could grab power out of the vacuum that a hussein obama presidency would create.
he's another jimmy carter, except that carter was a good christian and person.
obama and his rascist wife are moral relativists and shouldn't be trusted!
obama is weak and will cause many problems globally, not just domestically…
do not trust him. he is the devil!
Comment by x factor — October 7, 2008 @ 12:47 pm
Joyce, where I'm from many Jews thought that Germans were good, cultured people, until they lined them up against the wall. Any Jew who is aware of Khalidi, Auchi, Power, Brzezinski, Farrakhan, Wright, Obama's Hamas and Iranian support, and legions of other supporters that speak horrific things against the Jews, and still choses to think Obama is nothing but the mortal enemy is a fool.
Comment by Igor R. — October 7, 2008 @ 3:11 pm
Joyce,
You forget that Mr. Rogers was a military hero who fought for our America. Unlike your Obama who is a wolf in sheeps clothing. John McCain knows what it will take to keep YOU safe here in America. I'm from IL and can tell you Obama did nothing in IL government and that has carried over to his brief senate career. When Obama has done anything creditable, you come back and we'll talk. You're right about one thing Joyce.. Obama is all talk and only talk.
While you're at it Joyce, please give me your explanation on Obama's wife and why she is only now proud to be an American. You really want her to meet with the world leaders spouses knowing she doesn't give a rats … about her own country? Why are we having to pay for her Harvard Law school education?
Take your blinders off before it's too late.
Comment by Anne — October 7, 2008 @ 9:36 pm
#25. I have hardly led a sheltered life. First of all, I'm from New York City and have more street smarts than almost everyone commenting here. I do not need John McCain or Rudy Guiliani to keep me safe.
I agree with Michelle Obama; I have not always been proud of my country [the government, not our people] and I am a white woman in her 60's with a successful business career [retired] and now own a small business. The last eight years have been hell for our country. The Europeans that cheered for Obama do not hate us. You are full of fear. They want a change of leadership in America and so do I. You are entitled to your opinion, but I think you will be disappointd the night of November 4th. Regards.
Comment by Joyce — October 8, 2008 @ 3:07 am
X;
What you don't realize is that America is look at to be the leader in the world. Until Bush II and his merry band of neocons, America was the beacon that shined a bright light into darkness. America was the place that Truth, Justice and the American Way use to be the standards for the rest of the world. Under Bush, America began to torture people, we even shot down Habeous Corpus, or the great writ. Why, because white folks like you got scared. You wanted a daddy to protect you form the big bad brown people. Well guess what, your government now considers you a terrorist no matter what your skin color is. To make this a better world, America needs to lead again but we have to clear out all those neocons and republicans that screwed this country. The world "wants" America to lead again but not under scared white folks, who would rather shoot first and talk later. For this time in history Obama is the right person for that change.
Comment by Mike Coleman — October 8, 2008 @ 12:10 pm
Joyce!If Obama wins in November we will all be disappointed for the next 4 years.
Comment by Teerry Gee — October 12, 2008 @ 11:45 am