October 9, 2008
North Carolina as a Battleground (Doug Heye)
I wanted to highlight a piece I wrote for National Review Online about North Carolina.
One of the fascinating things about North Carolina politics this year (and there are many) is that the state was never supposed to be a part of the political dialogue. Not in the primary, not in the general. Of course, a lot of things happened in this campaign season no one predicted, so maybe it makes a certain sense. In any event, it is hugely significant that in the North Carolina primary on May 6 — at a time when Barack Obama was seen as the clear front-runner — 44 percent of North Carolina Democrats voted against him. That's 664,000 voters.
With the campaign neck and neck in the state, those conservative Democrats, the old "Jessecrats" who are registered Democrat but often vote Republican, represent a prime opportunity for John McCain to pick up votes in the state. A large percentage of these voters are in eastern North Carolina. Two factors here help McCain:
1. Many of these voters are military personnel and veterans located around North Carolina bases such as Camp Lejeune and Fort Bragg (North Carolina has the second highest population of military personnel in the nation — largely concentrated in the east). These are natural McCain voters.
2. In 2004, northeastern North Carolina gave Sen. Richard Burr (R) his second highest margin with swing voters.
It's no coincidence that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's first visit to North Carolina was in Greenville, the largest city in the area. Nor is it a coincidence that Hillary Clinton made such a strong effort to target the East.
In a year of political twists and turns, McCain may well win the state, in part, by following the Clinton road map that exposed a party divided.
Fascinating.
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Well, North Carolina may be one of the few states McCain wins maybe not.
Comment by Joyce — October 9, 2008 @ 6:28 pm
It's hard to imagine the military vote going to a friend of two terrorists and to someone who has accused the troops of atrocities against civilians. It's also hard to imagine it going to someone who campaigned for his murderous cousin Odinga in Kenya very recently, especially considering that Odinga named his son "Fidel Castro", among his many other notable "achievements".
Comment by Igor R. — October 9, 2008 @ 7:38 pm
I think more military families are turning toward Obama. All those tours and lousy body armor have contributed.
Comment by Nellie — October 9, 2008 @ 11:07 pm
Its funny how the right goes after Ayers while keeping a blind eye to Pitbull Palin's Unamerican activities in the Alaskan Independence Party.
How could Palin let her husband (who has served as co-governor) belong to a party that wanted to leave America and received funding from the Islamic Republic of Iran?
Live by the smear, die by the smear.
Comment by Will — October 10, 2008 @ 12:15 am
I am a down east tarheel and Obama has plenty of support in this military and veteran community despite the heavy-handed propagandizing by the nefarious Freedoms Watch and Clarion Fund.
Comment by M. Richard — October 10, 2008 @ 8:20 am
Igor;
Obama has worked and voted for vets benefits and healthcare and dwell time more than McCain. According to recent numbers, Obama is receiving 6 times more contributions from the military than McCain. It must suck to be you and if you think the military are terrorist lovers then you are one sick puppy.
Comment by Mike Coleman — October 10, 2008 @ 9:13 am
not sure, but wasn't obama's "huge" nc primary victory heralded as one of the (many) death-knell's of hilary's bid? hard to say that favors mccain unless those who voted for hillary could never vote for a black man. the NRO article linked to says that the east of nc will be the key — what % of votes are in that area? it is generally rural in a state growing more urban.
Comment by resbospetican — October 10, 2008 @ 12:13 pm
If the Veterans actually go through the record, they will see that Obama voted for benefits for them pretty consistently, which McCain did not. [That includes body armor McCain voted against]. Some veteran he is.
Comment by Joyce — October 10, 2008 @ 1:17 pm
It was Obama's showing in NC that changed my mind about whether Obama could win the general election. I'm glad that what I felt at that time looks like it's becoming reality.
If you are counting on the military for a McCain win, you must not be talking with the troops. I know that in my neck of the woods near Camp Pendleton, the troops are angry that they were led into war by the lies of the Republican administration.
They also are no longer fooled by the phony McCain "Support our Troops" BS.
This is a pretty well informed group and will be voting overwhelmingly for Senator Obama.
I'm all for diversity and tolerance, but I don't think we need a bipolar President who would probably figure out a way to crash Air Force One.
Comment by smilinjack — October 11, 2008 @ 3:05 am
Obviously Obama is winning the military vote. Obama has the stature and poise to be Commander In Chief. McSame is metally unstable, confused, and tired. The best man will win this election.
Yes we can!
Comment by Lester — October 11, 2008 @ 8:31 am
Lester, his stature and poise are such that when he orders a retreat he makes it feel like a victory. Plus most the members of the military currently suffering from the "don't ask don't tell" policy have a crush on him. He'll also get to write the "Metrosexual's Military Manual" and "Reconciling your Radical Beliefs with Military Service" to ease the transition to the "People of the World Military" as the US Military will be called after the peaceful revolution.
Comment by Igor R. — October 11, 2008 @ 6:24 pm